North Korea’s H-bomb threat: The dreaded ‘Juche Bird’

Experts took as much notice of Kim’s delivery of last night’s statement as they did its content. The dictator sat at an ornate wooden desk, held his notes and looked at the camera as he spoke directly to Trump, even using the first person. “I am now thinking hard about what response he could have expected when he allowed such eccentric words to trip off his tongue,” Kim said of Trump’s threat this week to “totally destroy” North Korea if the U.S. or its allies are in danger. “Whatever Trump might have expected, he will face results beyond his expectation.

“I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged U.S. dotard with fire.”

Not long after the statement came out, Ri, who was in New York for the U.N General Assembly, warned what that fire could entail. “It could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb in the Pacific,” Ri told reporters, according to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. “We have no idea about what actions could be taken as it will be ordered by leader Kim Jong Un.”

The threat of an atmospheric nuclear test, the first since 1980, sent arms control experts buzzing, CNN reported. The dreaded Juche Bird, even if all goes well for the test, would cause untold levels of environmental devastation wherever it hits. The term is a play off of “Juche,” the nationalist rallying cry of self-reliance that accompanies Pyongyang’s nuclear threats, and “Frigate Bird,” a 1962 missile test in which the ballistic-missile submarine USS Ethan Allen fired a live Polaris A-2 nuclear missile that detonated over the Pacific.

But Vipin Narang, a nuclear policy expert at MIT, said he would be surprised if Kim went that route right away. He also noted that Ri described it as an option, and not a definite. “I think that was clever for them to specify the worst-case test while still leaving room to walk away from it,” Narang told CNN.

Narang said North Korea would more like test another intercontinental ballistic missile. “It would be surprising to me if [the Juche Bird is] their lead-off hitter now,” he said.

TRUMP TWEETS THIS MORNING: “Kim Jong Un of North Korea, who is obviously a madman who doesn’t mind starving or killing his people, will be tested like never before!”

TOP DIPLOMATS HUDDLE: Leaders from Seoul and Washington met in New York following the threats, and agreed to keep a close eye on developments. Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson “exchanged primary analysis and opinions of Kim’s statement … and agreed to carry out further close study of it,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a release, according to Yonhap.

And on the flight back to Seoul, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said North Korea’s neighbors must pressure the country to take its finger off the button. “When tensions are high like this … I do not think the international community has any other option but to pressure North Korea with one voice,” he told reporters. “We need to end this situation where provocations come in response to sanctions, which then lead to stronger sanctions. We have to get out of this at an early date. This is a big task.”

TURNING UP THE HEAT: Trump took executive action on Thursday to crack down on individuals, banks and businesses that are involved in trade with North Korea, as his administration seeks to further pressure Pyongyang into abandoning its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, Gabby Morrongiello writes. “Foreign banks will face a clear choice: do business with the United States or facilitate trade with the lawless regime in North Korea,” Trump said during a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Moon. “It is unacceptable that others financially support this criminal, rogue regime.”

Trump said his executive order, announced shortly after Chinese officials said the country had instructed its banks to strictly enforce international sanctions against North Korea, will “cut off sources of revenue that fund North Korea’s efforts to develop the deadliest weapons known to humankind” by directing the Treasury Department to target those conducting trade in “goods, services, or technology” with the communist regime. “The order also includes measures designed to disrupt critical North Korean shipping and trade networks,” the president added. “This is a complete denuclearization of North Korea that we seek. We cannot have this as a world body any longer.”

BUT IT COULD HURT U.S. FIRMS: New sanctions unveiled by the Trump administration that are intended to put a greater financial squeeze on North Korea may actually end up ensnaring American investors and companies who have developed joint ventures in China or frequently work with overseas suppliers and factories.

Doreen Edelman, co-leader of the global business team at the law firm Baker Donelson, said it will be crucial for U.S. companies of all sizes to determine “who their partners are doing business with since Americans cannot be working with anyone who owns, controls, or contributes to business in North Korea” under the latest executive order.

“It could mean that U.S. companies will face another administrative burden if they have to have trainings with their Chinese subsidiaries and make sure no one in their supply chain is covering up business transactions with North Korea,” Edelman told the Washington Examiner.

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense. Jamie is on vacation this week and next, but don’t worry, National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24) have you covered. Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

U.S. AND RUSSIAN GENERALS MEET: As Russia threatened retaliation against coalition forces in Syria, the Pentagon confirmed U.S. and Russian officials met on the ground there this week in an effort to defuse growing tensions. “They had a face-to-face discussion, laid down maps and graphics to discuss where those deconfliction measures would be put into place,” said Col. Ryan Dillon, a spokesman for the U.S. joint task force. It appeared to be the first time U.S. and Russian military leaders held such a meeting there, Dillon said. The leaders spoke for at least an hour about how their converging forces, including the U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces, would manage anti-Islamic State operations in eastern Syria’s Deir al-Zour province and along the Euphrates River valley leading to the Iraq border. “Part of the discussions is the expansion of this deconfliction line as its moves further on down the middle of the Euphrates River valley,” Dillon said. “We very much, as the coalition and our Syrian Democratic Forces, want to continue down into these areas where we know ISIS is.”

Russia claimed Thursday that its forces had been fired upon by mortars and rockets twice in the past week from SDF and U.S. special operations positions on the river, and warned that it would take immediate retaliatory action. “Firing points in these areas will be immediately suppressed by all means of destruction,” said Igor Konashenkov, the Defense Ministry spokesman. Dillon said recent tensions show why deconfliction work between the two countries is important. “We will continue to deconflict and continue ensure that our forces have all the protective measures in place and are ready to defend ourselves if necessary,” he said.

EDUCATIONAL TELEVISION: U.S. military officers tasked with training 100,000 Afghan police officers were ill-equipped to do so, and one even used television shows as a guide to training members of the Afghan National Police, according to a new report from the government watchdog overseeing Afghanistan reconstruction.

The findings come as part of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction’s investigation into the United States efforts to build Afghanistan’s security forces, as well as the flaws of executing that mission, Melissa Quinn writes.

“The U.S. government lacks a deployable police-development capability for high-threat environments, so we have trained over 100,000 Afghan police using U.S. Army aviators, infantry officers, and civilian contractors,” SIGAR’s John Sopko said during a speech Thursday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The only ministerial advisory training program is designed solely for civilians, but in Afghanistan, mostly untrained military officers are conducting that mission.”

In one example of the failures of the community-policing training, Sopko said he and his team spoke with a U.S. military officer who watched shows like “Cops” and “NCIS” to determine what to teach Afghan police.

OPEN LETTER: Dozens of security experts, former military officials and top diplomats are pushing Trump to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. Forty-five former security officials, including many who served in Republican administrations in senior positions overseeing nuclear weapons, arms control, nonproliferation, and intelligence, wrote Trump Wednesday calling on him to pursue a plan offered by former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton.

Bolton’s plan calls for abrogation of the deal, in consultation with U.K., France, Germany, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, over what he considers “outright violations and other unacceptable Iranian behavior” under the deal. His approach also calls for more stringent new sanctions to permanently bar the transfer of nuclear technology to Tehran. He also urges new sanctions in response to Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism and efforts and provocative actions that have destabilized the Middle East.

PRAISE FOR NEW STRATEGY: Afghan President Ashraf Ghani praised Trump’s new strategy in Afghanistan on Thursday, saying it has made a “difference of day and night.”

“Since the decision, there’s been an immense change on the ground. … It’s a difference of day and night,” Ghani said during remarks at the start of a meeting with Trump at the United Nations. “A cloud of uncertainty has been lifted, but equally important is your commitment to a political solution at the end of this process.”

Trump revealed a new strategy for the war in Afghanistan in a speech last month that included a commitment to prioritizing conditions on the ground, as opposed to adhering to arbitrary deadlines. The president signaled the Pentagon would send additional troops to Afghanistan, called out Pakistan for “housing the very terrorists we are fighting,” and emboldened India to do more in Afghanistan. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis confirmed this week that more than 3,000 additional U.S. advisers will deploy to Afghanistan soon.

BECOMING FRIENDS: Trump referred to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a “friend” during a press conference in New York as part of the United Nations General Assembly meeting. “He’s become a friend of mine,” Trump said. “We have a great friendship as countries. I think we’re, right now, as close as we have ever been. And a lot of that has to do with the personal relationship.”

Trump opened his remarks Thursday by introducing Erdogan, saying he is “running a very difficult part of the world. He has evolved very strongly, and frankly, he’s getting very high marks.” Erdogan, through a translator, referred to Trump as “my dear friend Donald.” Trump did not respond to a question about his message to Erdogan on violence against peaceful protesters during Erdogan’s visit to Washington in May.

THE DICTIONARY DICTATOR: Kim’s use of the word “dotard” caused the word to trend on social media last night, with many people sharing the meaning of the word after looking it up. Merriam-Webster’s Twitter account reported that, “[s]earches for ‘dotard’ are high as a kite.” A second tweet added, “The word meant “imbecile” when it was first used in the 14th century.”

If you haven’t read Kim’s entire statement, it’s here.

THE RUNDOWN

New York Times: Trump Poised to Drop Some Limits on Drone Strikes and Commando Raids

Washington Post: For the first time, the Marine Corps plans to have a female infantry officer among its ranks

USA Today: ISIS ‘caliphate’ near collapse as most of Raqqa taken by U.S.-backed forces

Reuters: Turkey to deploy troops inside Syria’s Idlib – Erdogan

Stars and Stripes: U.S. Forces Korea warns of fake evacuation messages

USNI News: Navy racing to test, field unmanned maritime vehicles for future ships

Task and Purpose: More than 2,000 paratroopers deployed to Afghanistan on short notice

Roll Call: Trump, Afghan president contradict one another on situation there

Foreign Policy: Mapped: North Korea’s diplomatic missions abroad

War on the Rocks: Zapad 2017: What we learned

Military.com: Without new nuclear weapon, B-52 bomber mission ends, general warns

UPI: Orbital ATK expanding Ohio composites facility

Calendar

FRIDAY | SEPT. 22

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Meeting U.S. deterrence requirements with Madelyn R. Creedon, former principal deputy administrator at the National Nuclear Security Administration, and Walter Slocombe, former undersecretary of defense for policy. brookings.edu

10 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A debate on whether the U.S. should arm Ukraine. atlanticcouncil.org

3:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. A perspective from the League of Arab States on restoring stability in a turbulent Middle East with Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Arab League secretary general. cfr.org

MONDAY | SEPT. 25

10 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. National security oversight: Congressional case studies and reform prospects. cato.org

12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. How Europe and Iran’s neighbors view the nuclear deal future with French ambassador Gérard Araud, British ambassador Sir Kim Darroch, European Union ambassador David O’Sullivan, and German ambassador Peter Wittig. atlanticcouncil.org

3:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Consequences of the German election for the European Union and trans-Atlantic relations. wilsoncenter.org

TUESDAY | SEPT. 26

9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Transatlantic forum on strategic communications and digital disinformation with Sen. Ron Johnson, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, Andrea Thompson, national security adviser to the vice president, and Ambassador Tacan Ildem, assistant secretary general at NATO. atlanticcouncil.org

10 a.m. Hart 216. Hearing on the reappointment of Gen. Joseph Dunford to be chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Redesign of the State Department with John Sullivan, deputy secretary of state. foreignaffairs.house.gov

10:30 a.m. Dirksen 419. Managing security assistance to support foreign policy with Tina Kaidanow, acting assistant secretary of state; Thomas Harvey III, acting assistant defense secretary; and Lt. Gen. Charles Hooper, director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency. foreign.senate.gov

4 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Book discussion on “Why Wilson Matters: The Origin of American Liberal Internationalism and Its Crisis Today” with author Tony Smith. wilsoncenter.org

WEDNESDAY | SEPT. 27

8:15 a.m. 1127 Connecticut Ave. NW. 2017 Women in Defense National Conference with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson; Gen. Lori Robinson, head of U.S. Northern Command; Leda Chong, senior vice president at Gulfstream Aerospace Corp.; and Sharon Dunbar, vice president at General Dynamics Mission Systems. womenindefense.net

9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Europe’s pressure points. aei.org

10 a.m. Dirksen 342. Full committee hearing on threats to the homeland. hsgac.senate.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Joint subcommittee hearing on the president’s Fiscal Year 2018 budget request for Afghanistan and Pakistan. foreignaffairs.house.gov

2 p.m. Rayburn 2212. Hearing on the strategy for modernizing the Army’s tactical network with Lt Gen. Bruce Crawford, Army deputy chief of staff; Maj. Gen. James Mingus, director of the Mission Command Center of Excellence at the Army Combined Arms Center; and Gary Martin, program executive officer for Army Control and Communications-Tactical. armedservices.house.gov

4:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Debate on the future of the INF treaty. csis.org

THURSDAY | SEPT. 28

10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Assessing the defense industrial base with Jerry McGinn, acting deputy assistant secretary of defense. heritage.org

FRIDAY | SEPT. 29

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Global hotspots and security challenges: A conversation with Sen. Joni Ernst. csis.org

10 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. What the new Russia sanctions law does and how to make it work. atlanticcouncil.org

12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. A conversation with Sen. Jack Reed. cfr.org

3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. A panel discussion with veterans and experts on Ken Burns‘ “The Vietnam War.” csis.org