Mattis delivers a warning to NATO ministers on spending

Mattis’s version was a little more folksy and to the point: “No longer can the American taxpayer carry a disproportionate share of the defense of Western values. Americans cannot care more for your children’s future security than you do.” What sets Mattis’ warning apart from previous complaints is it was backed by an explicit threat to moderate America’s commitment, if the rest of the NATO nations don’t pay up.

In a brief news conference before the NATO meeting, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg insisted that after years of foot-dragging, the alliance has “turned a corner” on funding. Stoltenberg said the latest figures that defense spending among European allies and Canada increased by 3.8 percent in real terms in 2016, roughly $10 billion. “This is significant, but it is not enough. We have to continue to increase defense spending across Europe and Canada,” Stoltenberg said.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Joseph Dunford will meet with his Russian counterpart today in Azerbaijan to talk about military relations between the two countries and how better communication can prevent “miscalculation and potential crises.” The talks are the first in two years, not since Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Also today, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is in Germany, where he will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the G-20 summit.

The meetings come amid newly provocative actions by Russia, including deploying nuclear-tipped cruise missiles in violation of a 1987 treaty, parking a spy ship in international waters off America’s east coast, and buzzing a U.S. warship in the Black Sea. U.S. European command has released a series of photos showing a pair of Russian Su-24s passing “within close proximity” of the guided-missile destroyer USS Porter while the ship was conducting “routine maritime operations” in international waters.

LOCKING IN RUSSIAN SANCTIONS: A bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced a bill Wednesday pushing to control changes to sanctions for Russia after Moscow’s purported attempt to interfere with the November elections, and after multiple outlets reported that the Trump campaign held conversations with Russian officials throughout the campaign, Al Weaver writes. Headed by House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, five House members are pushing the Russia Sanctions Review Act, which would give Congress the ability to review any sanctions relief deal before it would take effect. Along with Hoyer, the bill is supported by Rep. Adam Schiff, the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, and Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

A companion bill is moving through the Senate, and it has the support of House Speaker Paul Ryan, who said on MSNBC that he is a supporter of the sanctions former President Obama placed on the Russians in response to their attempt to interfere with the November elections. “I agree. I think we should have done these sanctions a while ago. I was frustrated that the Obama administration took so long to put these sanctions in place,” Ryan said. “If those sanctions were to be watered down, I would for sure support codifying them and making sure they don’t get watered down because I do believe that Russia is a global menace and their interests are not aligned with our interests.”

WILL HARWARD TAKE THE JOB? Trump has reportedly offered the national security position to retired Vice Adm. Robert Harward, a Navy SEAL who worked with Mattis at Central Command. Foreign Policy reported that Harward, if he takes the job, would want to clean house and bring in his own team. More on Harward and the other contenders here.

ODNI DENIAL: The Wall Street Journal quotes current and former officials as saying U.S. intelligence officials have deliberately withheld sensitive intelligence from Trump because of concern it could be leaked or compromised. It underscores, paper says, “the deep mistrust that has developed between the intelligence community and the president over his team’s contacts with the Russian government, as well as the enmity he has shown toward U.S. spy agencies.”  Shortly after the story was published, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence denied it. “Any suggestion that the U.S. Intelligence Community is withholding information and not providing the best possible intelligence to the President and his national security team is not true,” said a statement from the ODNI’s public affairs office.

FEUDING WITH THE IC: Yesterday, Trump blamed his firing of national security adviser Mike Flynn on unlawful leaks from the intelligence community, tweeting “Information is being illegally given to the failing @nytimes & @washingtonpost by the intelligence community (NSA and FBI?).Just like Russia.” Later at his news conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump railed against the leaks. “It’s criminal action. It’s a criminal act and it’s been going on for a long time before me but now it’s really going on.” And he praised Flynn as “a wonderful man,” making it appear he fired him only because his hand was forced by the leaks. “I think he’s been treated very, very unfairly by the media, as I call it, the fake media in many cases,” Trump said.

Trump continued this morning: “Leaking, and even illegal classified leaking, has been a big problem in Washington for years. Failing @nytimes (and others) must apologize! The spotlight has finally been put on the low-life leakers! They will be caught!”

INTEL TAKE THE WHEEL: The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence could begin holding hearings on Flynn’s Russia contacts after the President’s Day recess, Sen. Joe Manchin told reporters yesterday. He also said he’d like to see several people testify before the committee in as open a setting as possible while still protecting classified information. Among those he’d like to see testify are Flynn, former Acting Attorney General Sally Yates and former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort.

Amid the calls for an open investigation, many lawmakers weren’t ready to say if that call for transparency included the public release of the transcripts of Flynn’s phone calls with the Russian ambassador. Rep. Adam Smith, ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, said the transcripts must be reviewed first for classified information, but should be released if there’s nothing that needs to be protected. Sen. John McCain, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, had a similar view.  “I think we should find out what’s in them and then make the decision then,” McCain said. “I can’t specifically state. We need to ask a lot of questions and we need a lot of answers.”

Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, said Democrats are demanding that Flynn answer questions about his conversations with the Russian ambassador and possibly other officials in Moscow in public and under oath, Susan Crabtree writes. “We’re demanding that campaign and transition officials be made available to testify in public, under oath on these issues,” Schumer told reporters Wednesday afternoon. “They must testify and anyone else involved in this must be made available to testify as well,” he said.

F-35 BACKSTORY: A glimpse of Trump’s management and negotiation style is being offered by an exclusive report by Bloomberg, which alleges that when the then-president-elect called Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan last month to discuss the cost of the pricey fighter jet, he allowed Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg to listen in. Boeing is Lockheed Martin’s chief competitor and has been asked by Trump to run some numbers about what it would cost to buy more 4th generation Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornets, instead of the 5th gen F-35s, built by Lockheed. Bloomberg reports Muilenburg was in the president-elect’s New York office for a meeting Jan 17. “He appeared caught off-guard but heard at least Trump’s end of the call,” according to the report.

Bogdan heads to the House Armed Services Committee at 9 a.m. today to give lawmakers an update on the F-35 program. Look for him to talk about the recently-awarded contract for lot 10, as well as tout the progress the program has made dropping the per-plane price below $100 million for the Air Force variant. He may also be asked if Trump should get credit for the $700 million savings on the latest order. Experts say the cost-reduction was a result of program reforms long in the works, while the president says it was because of his personal intervention.  

RIGHT TO WORK AT BOEING PLANT: Speaking of Boeing, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers failed to unionize workers at a Boeing facility in South Carolina, where the company makes Dreamliner 787-10. Boeing says 74 percent of the more than 2,800 workers voted to reject the union.

GROUND TROOPS TO SYRIA? CNN created quite a bit of buzz yesterday with what sounded like a big scoop, that the Pentagon “might propose that the US send conventional ground combat forces into northern Syria.” But the report came with more caveats than hard facts. While stating the move would “significantly alter U.S. military operations in Syria if approved and could put troops on the ground within weeks,” it also said the idea was merely “as a point of discussion,” not “a formal proposal.” On the air, CNN Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr further qualified her story saying the ground troops option was “one of many ideas” and “not fully baked yet.”

Half-baked or not, the CNN report prompted Navy. Capt, Jeff Davis to issue a statement in response, essentially urging everyone to calm down. “As you know, we are in the process of conducting our 30-day review of the strategy to defeat ISIS as directed by the president,” Davis said. “We are considering a number of measures to accelerate the campaign as part of that review, but no decisions have been made.”

CNN’s careful language “might propose,” is a step removed from “seriously considering,” which itself is weaker than “is recommending.” But could it turn out be true? Pentagon sources have said all options are being discussed, but the most likely role for more conventional forces would be to provide artillery support to Syrian Coalition Forces advancing on Raqqa, or even Apache helicopters for close-air support. Both options would require putting “conventional” forces on the ground in Syria, but again not on the front lines. For an idea of how that night work, just look over to Iraq, where the addition of Marines south of Mosul manning HIMARS [Lockheed Martin’s High Mobility Artillery Rocket System] have added significantly to the coalition’s ability to conduct pinpoint strikes. The U.S. already has a HIMARS across the border in Turkey.

In a briefing yesterday, the British two-star deputy coalition commander in Iraq made clear it will be Syrian coalition fighters, including Arab forces, who will isolate and retake Raqqa. “That’s exactly what they’re doing and they’re doing it very effectively,” said Maj. Gen. Rupert Jones. “They’re closing in as we speak on the city of Raqqa, exactly as they said they would do.” Jones also said the penchant of ISIS for keeping meticulous records has translated into lots of valuable intelligence falling into U.S. hands as Iraqi forces continue to liberate more of Mosul.

A PALACE COUP TO SAVE THE IRAN DEAL? Senate Republicans aren’t quite ready to buy into a conspiracy theory that’s being floated in right-wing circles, Joel Gehrke writes, in which Obama loyalists took down Flynn in order to keep him from trashing the Iran deal. “I haven’t heard anything of it,” Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told the Washington Examiner late Wednesday afternoon. “I have a hard time putting any credence in it, but, like I said, it’s new to me.”

Reports said the loyalists were worried Flynn might expose the undisclosed “side deals” attendant to the Iran nuclear deal. An account of the alleged campaign received prominent placement on The Drudge Report, ensuring widespread attention from conservative and mainstream media outlets.

And yet, multiple Republicans who work on foreign policy issues disclaimed knowledge of the report. “I have not heard that at all and I wouldn’t have any way of even commenting,” Senate Foreign Relations chairman Bob Corker told the Washington Examiner. McCain also said he didn’t know about the claim.

THE RUNDOWN

Defense News: Interview: Rep. Rob Wittman, the latest in a line of influential chairmen

Defense One: Trump’s Empty ‘Ultimatum’ to NATO

Marine Corps Times: Lack of maintainers is fueling the Corps’ aviation crisis

Army Times: Army, Marine Corps developing UAV for faster, safer resupply missions

UPI: Bell-Boeing contracted for V-22 sustainment and upgrade planning

USNI News: Carrier Gerald R. Ford Heads to Sea Next Month; Commissioning Later This Year

Defense One: Take Off the Pentagon’s Gloves in the ISIS War? Not So Fast.

Wall Street Journal: U.S., Middle East Allies Explore Arab Military Coalition

Washington Post: This is the ground-launched cruise missile that Russia has reportedly just deployed

Military.com: A Year In, No Female SEAL Applicants, Few for SpecOps

Navy Times: CNO to sailors: We need to get tough

Calendar

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 16

9 a.m. Rayburn 2212. Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan provides the House Armed Services Committee an update on the F-35 program. armedservices.house.gov

9:30 a.m. A panel of experts testifies about reshaping the U.S. military. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Think tank analysts testify about Iran being put “on notice” by the administration. foreignaffairs.house.gov

2 p.m. Hart 219. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence holds a closed briefing. intelligence.senate.gov

4:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts a debate on European missile defense for NATO. csis.org

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 21

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A panel of experts discusses defense priorities in the Trump administration. brookings.edu

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. A panel talks about the future prospects for the Iran nuclear deal. heritage.org

2 p.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Center for a New American Security CEO Michele Flournoy sits on a panel to discuss the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan and how it should be modified. cnas.org

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 23

8 a.m. 1800 Jefferson Davis Highway, Arlington, Va. Allison Stiller, the assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development and acquisition, speaks at a Navy League breakfast event. navyleague.org

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein speaks at a military strategy forum. csis.org

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Joseph Dunford talks about global threats and U.S. national security priorities. brookings.edu

12 p.m. Rayburn 2168. Cato Institute experts talk about whether it’s time to conduct another round of base realignment and closures. cato.org

2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. A panel discusses efforts to develop a global standard for drones. stimson.org