Ladies and gentlemen, the NFL is back. While the times we’re living in aren’t normal, NFL Sundays are certainly something we can mark as a step on the right path to a return to normalcy.
I’ll be providing breakdowns and betting picks for a few key games each week. Here are three games you can’t miss.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET on FOX
This matchup is interesting because these two teams have a very good idea about who they are and what they do well.
The Falcons typically have an elite offense that’s pass-heavy and a defense that often struggles to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Last year, Atlanta got off to a horrendous 1-7 start that pretty much ended their playoff chances from the get-go. If head coach Dan Quinn wants to keep his job, that can’t happen again.
Matt Ryan is an MVP quarterback who is phenomenal at leading late-game comebacks, especially in the fourth quarter or in overtime.
The Falcons have one of the best receiver tandems in football in superstar Julio Jones and rising star Calvin Ridley. New addition Todd Gurley is a massive wild card. If his left knee is healthy, he could get around 15 touches per game and be a game changer with play-action and in the red zone. I really don’t like the depth behind him in Brian Hill and Ito Smith.
Austin Hooper, who was one of the game’s most productive tight ends last year in Atlanta, is now in Cleveland. Hayden Hurst has the potential to rack up big numbers in that role this year.
The Seahawks typically have a run-heavy offense and a great defense. Last year, the defense was shoddy. This year, that shouldn’t be the case. Seattle added Jamal Adams, Quinton Dunbar, and Jordyn Brooks.
Russell Wilson simply makes play after play after play and wins games. Time and time again, he’s able to create something from nothing and pull off the miraculous. For much of last season, he was in the MVP conversation. That’s his normal now, and that’s the level of play we should expect from him.
Chris Carson is going to get lots of touches in the run game because the Seahawks love to run the ball, but Tyler Lockett and comically muscular DK Metcalf both have big-play potential.
The line: Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)
The pick: I think this game is close to a toss-up, and Vegas sees it the same way. Wilson’s mobility and the Seahawks’ effectiveness in the run game will help them control the tempo. Even though the Seahawks will have their hands full with Ryan and the Falcons offense, I’ve got Seattle to win and cover.
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
The 49ers return almost all their starters and staff from a team that could have (and, in my opinion, should have) won the Super Bowl last season.
The offense is still dangerous because George Kittle is a matchup nightmare, and the run game, led by Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman, will continue to wear down opponents. The defense should still be one of the best in the NFL as Nick Bosa is primed to take a big step forward in his second year in the league.
The health of Deebo Samuel is critical. He has a shot to play this week, but if he doesn’t, the 49ers will be a lot more one-dimensional on offense.
For the Cardinals, Kyler Murray will try to avoid a sophomore slump and build off his Rookie of the Year season. He’s a mobile QB but doesn’t have a run-first mentality. The addition of Kenyan Drake last year was big for the Cardinals, but he was not even close to being as big or as important as the trade for DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals fleeced the Texans in the trade, giving up David Johnson, and that’s about it.
Hopkins will be the lead receiver along with future no-doubt first-ballot Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald and a potential rising star in Christian Kirk. I think all three wideouts will have over 1,000 receiving yards this season.
Hopkins is one of the toughest people to defend in football. In fact, he might be the rare kind of player in which your only legitimate option defensively is to try and contain the person because the player’s impossible to shut down. His dominance will draw lots of double teams and attention, which will make it easier for Murray to pick apart opposing defenses.
While the offense is supercharged at the skill positions, the offensive line is still suspect (especially with right tackle Marcus Gilbert opting out of the season), and the defense still has holes that need to be addressed. The Cardinals gave up more yards than any team in football last year. They can’t afford to have those same issues. Adding uber-talented and versatile linebacker Isaiah Simmons in the draft was great, but he’s unproven. In addition, cornerback Robert Alford is out for the season, putting even more pressure on Patrick Peterson.
Can the Cardinals defense hold up against San Francisco’s powerful rushing attack?
The line: San Francisco 49ers (-7)
The pick: The 49ers are looking for redemption. I think San Francisco’s running game will wear Arizona down while also limiting the time that Kyler Murray and Co. spend on the field. I’m taking the 49ers to win but don’t think they’ll cover that 7-point spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints, 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
Almost no team besides the previously mentioned 49ers is better positioned to take advantage of the COVID-19 chaos than the Saints. Why? Continuity throughout the staff and continuity with personnel.
The Saints have put together back-to-back 13-3 seasons and are still loaded. They have 13 guys that were either first-team All-Pro or were selected to the Pro Bowl last year.
Future first-ballot Hall of Famer Drew Brees isn’t the gunslinger that he used to be, but he still has more than enough in the tank. The Saints also gave him another weapon in Emmanuel Sanders. In case you forgot, Michael Thomas is one of the toughest players to defend in the entire league, and Alvin Kamara has the potential to single-handedly win games.
While the Saints aren’t one of football’s best defenses, they are sneaky good. It’ll be a very different atmosphere this weekend when they’re not playing in front of a home crowd that is so loud that they’re deafening. Janoris Jenkins arrived late last year and could form one of the best cornerback tandems in the game with Marshon Lattimore.
The biggest move of the offseason happened when Tom Brady announced he was leaving New England and taking his talents to Tampa Bay. The offense has the potential to be one of the best in football this year, and Brady may very well have a chip on his shoulder to prove that he’s still a dominant quarterback and can succeed without Bill Belichick.
He has a pair of stud wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, a dynamic tight end in Rob Gronkowski, and a pair of running backs in LeSean McCoy and Leonard Fournette that could be game changers and force teams to respect the run.
There are two big question marks for the Bucs: defense and kicking. Tampa Bay’s defense got torched over the first two-thirds of last season. The Saints dropped 31 and 34 points in their wins over the Bucs.
How will the defense fare this year? If the Bucs can’t get stops on that side of the ball, they’re going to be putting a lot of pressure on the offense to score early and often to keep them in games.
On the special teams side, the Bucs recently released Matt Gay, whom they drafted in the fifth round last year, and signed veteran Ryan Succop. Succop is the 10th kicker that the Bucs have used for field-goal duties since 2010! That’s tied for the most by a single team during that span.
The line: New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
The pick: The Bucs are breaking in several new pieces, including Brady, and they might be without Evans, the star wideout. The Saints won’t have their usual massive home-field advantage, but their talent on both sides of the ball and continuity should be enough to get them over the top. I’m picking the Saints to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
