Facing Vladimir Putin, America’s second most eminent adversary, President Joe Biden is fashionably presented as some kind of ordained savior. Biden, the casual thinking goes, is the antidote to President Donald Trump’s Russian appeasement policy.
There is little factual basis for this understanding. He might call Putin a killer, then a couple of weeks later call up Putin to ask for a summit, but Biden is weak on Russia. So far, at least. Let’s start out at sea.
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Washington recently gave Turkey, which supervises the Turkish straits, notice that two U.S. Navy destroyers would enter the Black Sea this week. These deployments were a semi-regular fixture under the Trump administration (alongside even more direct naval challenges to Russia), designed to show support for Ukraine as it grapples with continuing Russian aggression. But as Politico reported on Thursday, the latest navy deployment has been canceled. This is because, as one Biden administration official tells the news outlet, “Naval movements are frequently subject to change due to maintenance or shifting operational plans. … This particular transit was scrapped due to a ‘myriad’ of reasons, including a desire not to provoke Moscow during a delicate time, the person said.”
Give me a break.
There are no “myriad” of reasons for this abrupt course change, there is just one reason. Namely, that Biden fears an escalation curve that Putin will control. This is the same mistake the Obama administration made again, again, and again with Putin. The ex-KGB man pretends to be capable of anything and then has his senior staff make a few phone calls which he knows the U.S. National Security Agency will intercept. In those calls, the staff warn that Putin’s anger is getting the better of him etc. and that he might do anything etc. The intent is to scare Washington into conciliation. Biden is playing the game well. He even asked Putin for a summit in a phone call this week! And when, on Thursday, Biden introduced limited new sanctions against the Kremlin, he was quick to qualify his actions. “Now is the time to de-escalate,” the president said, “the way forward is through thoughtful dialogue and diplomatic process.” This overt hesitation is not a very clever tactic for negotiating with the Russians. Putin finds rhetoric very cheap.
The weakness abides.
Surging military forces to Ukraine’s borders over the past two weeks, Putin has met only the mildest U.S. rebuke. Biden and his top officials have made phone calls to Ukraine while doing precious little else. That takes us back to the cancelled Black Sea navy transit. Because the idea that this action might have been canceled due to maintenance concerns, as suggested by the Biden official who spoke to Politico, is ludicrous. The warships would have had to pass rigorous readiness tests in order to enter the Black Sea and potentially face off against the Russian military. Nor is a shift in “operational plans” is a credible excuse. Black Sea deployments are popular with the Navy in that they provide commanders and crews with operational experience in high-stress environments against a capable, multi-domain war-fighting foe.
Putin will view this canceled deployment for what it is: a new sign of U.S. timidity to match the caution in Biden’s phone calls. The Kremlin will believe its recent threats against the U.S. are paying dividends.
Still, this is just one element of Biden’s weak record on Russia.
Despite introducing new sanctions on the Russian intelligence services, Biden is refusing to enforce Congressionally mandated sanctions against Putin’s Nord Stream 2 energy pipeline to Europe. He says it’s complicated. As with his Black Sea backdown, Biden’s sanctions stance is in stark contrast with the Trump administration, which was determined to kill off the natural gas pipeline. Team Trump’s determination had good cause. Nord Stream 2 will deny Ukraine billions of dollars in annual transit fees by replacing gas flows from existing pipelines. Moreover, tying cold European winters to the provision of energy supplies, Putin will use his Nord Stream 2 valve to extract political concessions from the European Union. As proven by related Russian intelligence activities, Nord Stream 2’s completion is Putin’s foremost strategic objective in Europe. Germany might want the pipeline, but most European states, including the Baltics, Poland, and France are deeply concerned. With the pipeline 90% completed, Biden’s appeasement policy is surely being toasted in Moscow.
Oh, and Germany raises another example of Biden’s weakness toward Putin. Although Berlin is now an unreliable U.S. ally on critical concerns including NATO, Russia, and China, Biden this week increased the U.S. military force presence on German soil. His action indirectly rewards Chancellor Angela Merkel’s more absurd policies, such as her tolerance of Russian GRU chemical weapons facilities on German soil. If the message is to deter Putin, why not send the troops to the Baltics? Why reward those who enable Putin’s endangerment of Europe? A fervent supporter of NATO, I fear that this tolerance of Germany will undermine the alliance’s credibility with Americans.
Yes, Biden speaks more accurately than Trump did about Putin’s nature. It must be said that Trump was truly delusional on this count. And yes, Biden is rightly pledging America’s commitment to NATO. But if, as now, these pledges are misaligned from policy action, Putin has little reason to take them seriously.
