2019 will bring its share of serious foreign policy challenges. But it will also bring exciting opportunities. Here are three.
Developing U.S.-India relations
President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have built a strong relationship on the back of U.S. efforts to facilitate India’s economic and security interests. This marks a development from the Barack Obama era when U.S.-India relations were positive, but lacked the substance of addressing Indian concerns. But in 2019 there will be a chance for further growth. If Trump focuses on Indian priorities such as expanded Indian high-skilled visas, and continuing his pressure campaign on Pakistan (justified for U.S. interests as much as Indian), a broader U.S.-India trade deal might be possible. That deal would consolidate a massive 1.4 billion person export market for U.S. companies. This matters because as Indians grow wealthier, they’ll want to buy from America’s most lucrative economic sectors: professional services, high-tech machinery, and high-tech consumer goods such as the iPhone. India offers potential for another reason: in the form of a mutually beneficial alliance against Chinese aggression.
Strengthening Pacific alliances
As China seeks to dominate the western Pacific Ocean (yes, I’m quite concerned about China), it has birthed a growing alliance against it. The U.S., Australia, Japan, and prospectively Vietnam and the Philippines are joining the U.S. in more aggressive counterforce actions against China. Trump could further consolidate this pro-U.S. alliance structure by rejoining of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. Still, we should welcome the fact that America is finding stronger allies in an important part of the world.
A democratic, capitalist concert of the Americas
In Jair Bolsonaro’s election as Brazilian president, and the continuing power of the Colombian conservative party, the U.S. has two natural partners with which to work to the Americas’ common benefit. While Bolsonaro has made some unpleasant comments, he has committed to breaking his people free of socialist cronyism. Considering Brazil and Colombia’s resources, education levels, and democratic values, the importance of these nations cannot be discounted. A concert-based alliance between our three nations would also exert new pressure Cuba and Venezuela. This might involve, for example, a greater joint effort to challenge Nicolas Maduro’s effort to turn Venezuela into a dystopian playground for China and Russia.
Ultimately, of course, none of the above will come easily. It will require diligent attention and careful, consistent action by the U.S. But if the Trump administration is bold, 2019 can be a year of significant, positive foreign policy developments.
