President Trump’s proposal to increase tariffs has already started a trade war — inside his own party.
Congressional Republicans are hoping they can get Trump to change his mind about slapping a 25 percent tariff on imported steel and 10 percent on imported aluminum. A spokeswoman for House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., said leadership was “extremely worried about the consequences” of the move and feared it would “jeopardize” economic gains from the tax cuts.
The rift comes after a year in which Trump has largely gone along with Republican policy priorities he shares with Ryan and others: tax reform, repealing and replacing parts of Obamacare, deregulation, and the appointment of conservative judges.
Trump has nibbled around the edges of the post-war trade policy consensus, pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and engaging in North American Free Trade Agreement renegotiations. But this been the first big fight he has picked with fellow Republicans over trade protectionism and the second time in recent months he has hewed to a distinctly populist line, after he refused to sign on to a deal saving Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals that did not otherwise fit in with his restrictionist immigration framework.
“They haven’t been listening to what he’s been saying and what he’s been talking about or his promise to pursue fair and reciprocal trade deals for this country,” White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said of balky Republicans during Monday’s briefing.
“The people came out loud and clear in support of the president, therefore supporting the ideas he campaigned on,” Sanders added. “The president wants to make sure that we’re doing everything we can to protect American workers.”
“No, we’re not backing down,” Trump himself told reporters. “Our factories have left our country. Our jobs have left our country. For many years, NAFTA has been a disaster.”
NAFTA is a free trade agreement conceived by Ronald Reagan, negotiated by George H.W. Bush, and passed during Bill Clinton’s administration with the support of 66 percent of House Republicans and 80 percent of Republicans in the Senate.
“If I do make a deal, which is fair for American workers, that would be … one of the points that would be negotiated — tariffs on steel and aluminum,” Trump said. “If they aren’t going to make a fair NAFTA deal, we’re just going to leave it this way.”
But Trump won the Republican presidential nomination campaigning as an immigration hawk and trade protectionists. He was elected president hammering trade deals supported by Bill and Hillary Clinton, helping him pierce the “blue wall” by carrying industrial states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, in addition to Ohio.
The first three of those states hadn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since the 1980s.
Trump also junked the “Gang of Eight” approach to immigration, including restrictionist conservatives like Sens. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., and David Perdue, R-Ga., in negotiations with Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Democrats. The resulting compromise, a path to citizenship for up to 1.8 million DACA-eligible immigrants combined with new limits on family-based migration and an end to the diversity visa lottery, has stalled.
Immigration populism had substantial support among House Republicans even before Trump, which is why bills that had more than 60 votes in the Senate routinely died in the House dating all the way back to George W. Bush’s presidency. The tariff hikes set up an even bigger confrontation with Hill Republicans.
“I think he always has stuck on populism — populism is anti-big,” Republican strategist Brad Todd said of Trump. “Big biz, big govt, big media all.”
Trump has in fact been calling for trade protections and railing against foreign countries taking advantage of the United States for decades.
“The alliance that elected him is a coalition, and like any coalition, not everyone will always be comfortable,” Todd added. “Corporate CEOs are not showing full comfort with it either — they love it when this alliance gets them a tax cut but they stab it in the back on social issues.”
Despite recent Republican support for free trade, Trump’s position has grassroots backing too. A Harvard/Politico poll released before the 2016 presidential election found 85 percent of Republicans said free trade destroyed more jobs than it created — compared to 54 percent of Democrats who said the same.
Pat Buchanan, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum all ran second in the Republican presidential primaries with strong conservative support while in varying degrees criticizing free trade.
“Trump was overdue for delivering on his populist promises,” said George Hawley, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Alabama. “His few major victories in the first year were conventional conservative policies and appointments. It’s hard to know whether this will mark a major shift. Tariffs are an easy win for Trump, much easier than a border wall, legal immigration reductions, or massive infrastructure investments.”
Hawley, an expert on American conservatism, said Trump’s trade views aren’t unique inside the GOP.
“The idea that conservative Republicans are free trade purists is relatively new,” he said. “The first Republicans were strong protectionists. Ronald Reagan imposed several tariffs. Conservative economists and pundits may hate trade barriers, but they do not command many votes in the electorate. Whether or not the economics of Trump’s trade policies are sound, they do make political sense.”
Yet there are many strong free traders inside the GOP caucus, many of whom fear Trump is risking a trade war that will endanger the relatively strong economic growth that might represent the Republicans’ best chance to hold on to its congressional majorities this year.
Trump said on Monday that there won’t be a trade war, although he had previously described such a conflict as “good” and “easily won.”
“Trade wars are never won. Trade wars are lost by both sides,” Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., said in a statement Friday. “Kooky 18th century protectionism will jack up prices on American families — and will prompt retaliation from other countries. Make no mistake: If the President goes through with this, it will kill American jobs — that’s what every trade war ultimately does. So much losing.”
