MANCHESTER, New Hampshire — With the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary only five months away, polls suggest Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders are the top three favorites to win the Democratic presidential nomination. But mid- to low-tier presidential candidates are framing their struggle to gain traction in primary polls as a positive rather than a liability, pointing to historical trends and signs of progress in their own campaigns.
“We have never had a candidate who was ahead in the polls this far out who has ever gone on to be president,” New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, 50, told reporters Saturday at the New Hampshire Democratic Party convention. “Thank God,” he added, that he is not further ahead in the polls right now. “The candidates that win from our party that energize the kind of movement elections we want to see are folks that were considered long shots at this point. Carter, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama were all behind.”
“When Democrats have won in the modern era of presidential politics, whether it was John Kennedy, or Jimmy Carter, or Bill Clinton or Barack Obama in 2008, it was with a new, exciting face to the party. And I believe that people are looking for that again,” said former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, 44.
“I’m convinced that we’re going to beat Donald Trump by reassembling the 2008 Obama coalition and then taking that to the next level. I can do that,” Castro, who, if elected, would be the first Latino president, added.
In the 2008 primary cycle, for instance, Hillary Clinton led Barack Obama through all of 2007. While she held the lead all through the 2016 cycle, she lost to President Trump.
Candidates pointed to the advantage of youth, drawing a distinction between themselves and the top-tier candidates without naming them. Biden is 76, Warren is 70, and Sanders turns 78 on Sunday.
“Every single time a Democrat a won in my lifetime, the last 50 or 60 years, it’s been somebody from a new generation offering a different kind of message and somebody who’s from either outside Washington or hasn’t been there for too long,” said South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Prospects appear to be much better for candidates who qualified for the September round of Democratic primary debates, which required the hopefuls to receive 2% support in at least four Democratic National Committee-approved primary polls and 130,000 individual donors. But candidates who missed the qualifying thresholds still point to signs of hope.
“This is not how the race is going to end, based on the polls today,” said Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan. “Everywhere we go, we pull two, three volunteers out,” he said, and pointed to upcoming endorsements in South Carolina and New Hampshire. “We’re going to play the long game, regardless of the debate stage.”
“From what I can tell from the polls that the DNC doesn’t recognize in the four primary states where I’ve been spending my time, I think I’m somewhere in fourth or fifth place,” said billionaire businessman Tom Steyer, who has spent millions of dollars on digital and television ads in early primary states. “As far as I can tell, my message is being well-received, and it’s working better than I would have expected.”
