America’s nuclear modernization effort may be in for a delay or the elimination of the ground-based deterrent if Joe Biden wins the presidency, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith indicated in a recent discussion.
Meanwhile, from an operational standpoint, nuclear ICBM commanders and experts who spoke to the Washington Examiner worry that there is no time to waste if the aging ICBM fleet is to remain operational.
“I, frankly, think that our ICBM fleet right now is driven as much by politics as it is by a policy necessity,” Smith said in a Center for a New American Security discussion last week.
Smith made the case that Midwestern states that host missile silos do so for economic gain, not out of strategic necessity. He praised China’s nuclear deterrence philosophy to maintain a small nuclear arsenal as “a pretty sound approach.”
“It’s also a heck of a lot cheaper than imagining that you have to build enough nuclear weapons to win a nuclear conflict,” he said. “So, I think, and I’m confident that the Biden administration, if it comes, is going to feel this way, that we need to reexamine the nuclear posture review.”
China has an estimated 200 nuclear weapons, and while Defense Department analysts predict that number will double by the end of the decade, the total missile count will pale in comparison to America’s 4,000 nuclear weapons.
The focus of Smith’s comments were on the ground-based leg of the nuclear triad, which relies on some 400 missile silos to house America’s intercontinental ballistic missiles. The current version of the ICBM in those silos, the Minuteman III, was commissioned in 1971, and experts say modernization is urgent.
“Everyone just thinks about the missiles,” Center for Strategic and International Studies nuclear security expert Rebecca Hersman told the Washington Examiner in a recent interview. “It’s a lot more than the missiles in terms of what needs to be redone.”
Hersman noted that Francis E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming is the first of three ICBM bases that would be modernized, followed by Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana and Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota.
“The pieces are not falling off of this equipment. It is being masterfully maintained,” she said of the half-century-old nuclear missiles.
“We haven’t been teetering on the edge of disaster for 40 years,” Hersman added. “The big question is, could you eke out another 10, another 20, another 30 years, like some people are suggesting? And that seems risky.”
In September, the Air Force awarded Northrop Grumman a $13.3 billion contract to upgrade the aging Ground Based Strategic Deterrent, or GBSD, system, but Smith and other members of Congress question the short- and long-term costs and the necessity to maintain the land-based leg in its current form, or at all.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated in January that it would cost the Department of Defense $494 billion to maintain the nuclear forces through 2028.
Maj. Gen. Mike Lutton, commander of the 20th Air Force at F.E. Warren, which oversees the three wings of nuclear ICBMs, told the Washington Examiner in a recent Zoom interview that life-extension measures have nearly reached their limit.
“When you look at it as an operational military commander, I’m focused on our capabilities, and it’s pretty well documented where we’re at with the Minuteman III and why we need to modernize our force,” Lutton said ahead of a briefing at Hill Air Force Base in Utah on the new GBSD.
At Hill, Lutton said he hopes to learn how he and other bases will maintain the current nuclear deterrent while also phasing in a brand new system.
“For certain action activities like fielding a new weapons system, I mean, 2023 is around the corner for us,” he said. “What does that mean to our operational tempo here? What does that mean to our personnel tempo here? Those are the things that I’ll be looking at, quite honestly.”
F.E. Warren’s approximately 150 silos are expected to phase offline when modernization begins. To retain the strategic deterrent, Malmstrom and Minot will need to extend the life of their missiles the longest.
“In one way, shape, or another, we’ve been operating this system for almost five decades,” Lutton said, reflecting on the recent anniversary of the Cuban missile crisis, which put Minot’s Minuteman I missiles on alert 58 years ago.
“I think, by anybody’s estimation, we’re about due to modernize after five decades,” he added.
Adversary Russia has nearly completed its modernization effort, while the U.S. plan is expected to run through 2029, if it stays on track.
Smith said the timeline is worth a rethink.
“What I want us to have is a nuclear arsenal that is sufficient to deter anyone from thinking that it makes sense to start a nuclear war,” he said. “We have a nuclear arsenal that still envisions ‘winning a nuclear war,’ all right? That’s what I find insane.”
He added: “It’s worth having the debate to envision what should our nuclear deterrence policy look like and what do we need to build to achieve it?”
