Just one day after allowing his supporters to risk contracting a deadly virus while going to the polls in Wisconsin for him, Bernie Sanders finally ended his second and final presidential bid, and clearly, his base isn’t taking it well. After Sanders supporters made #NeverBidenNeverTrump go viral on Twitter, the campaign’s national press secretary claimed he’d “go after” Biden.
Bernie was too kind to go after Biden, but it’s coming.
Either Dem leadership cares more abt maintaining a corporate status quo than getting rid of Trump, or they’re planning to replace Joe – adopting a pretty fast and loose relationship w/ representative Democracy.
Lose lose. https://t.co/mzQYMjM2Nc
— Briahna Joy Gray (@briebriejoy) April 9, 2020
Eager to extend an olive branch to Sanders supporters, Biden has explicitly credited Sanders and his supporters with “laying the groundwork” for two new campaign proposals: lowering the eligibility for Medicare (already the single-most significant contributor to our projected spending growth) to age 60 and a limited cancellation of some student debt. That’s fine if Biden wants to make a show of good faith and sportsmanship, but he shouldn’t continue down this path to try and win over the Bernie base because he simply doesn’t need them.
For starters, the number of Sanders supporters who will actually follow through on their commitment not to vote for Biden is likely negligible. Sure, 15% of Sanders supporters reported that they’d vote for President Trump, but in 2016, only half of the 20% of Sanders supporters who said they’d vote for Trump over Hillary Clinton actually did. Only 7% or 8% of Sanders supporters would do so in 2020 if this trend were to persist.
Furthermore, the presidency is won through the Electoral College, not the popular vote. Biden has still retained his dominance over Trump in swing states and counties where Trump and Clinton were within 10 points of each other in 2016, and in the states that do matter, Sanders’s more extreme signature proposals could only harm Biden. The presumptive Democratic nominee has a lead over Trump in crucial Rust Belt states, but could he retain that if he backed the Sanders ban on fracking, an industry that employs hundreds of thousands of Pennsylvanians?
And besides, Sanders’s vaunted “unprecedented turnout” promise never actually materialized, whereas Biden’s winning coalition did. Sure, Sanders did manage to increase his support among Latinos, and he absolutely crushed his competitors with the youth vote. But youth turnout in the Sanders-friendly states of Iowa and New Hampshire was the exact same as in 2016. In contrast, Biden actually did spur near-record turnout in states such as South Carolina and unprecedented turnout in states such as Virginia.
As the de facto party leader, Biden has an interest in maintaining a semblance of party unity, and if he wants to invite Sanders supporters into his coalition, so be it. The overwhelming majority of them will likely be happy enough to do it. But if Chapo and basement dwellers in Bed-Stuy refuse to join, it’s no big deal. After all, the election won’t be won in California and New York, but with the suburbs that flipped the House for Democrats in 2018. It’s far more important that he doesn’t alienate swing states than he enthuse states that will never, ever elect Trump.
Biden has very little to gain and everything to lose in pivoting too far left to gain the Bernie Bros. If they refuse to take the bait, he should simply walk away.
