As Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., enters the 2020 presidential race, he’ll have to face a much different reality than he did during his first run: he no longer has a monopoly on Democratic socialism.
When he launched his long shot bid for the 2016 presidential nomination, he faced a much different field. One side was the runaway frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, who was the clear establishment choice for the nomination. The rest of the field was made up of a few other boring Democrats who never went anywhere.
Liberal activists, initially, were desperately trying to convince Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., to challenge Clinton. When she opted out, Sanders became the default choice for those seeing a bold socialist agenda as an alternative to the milquetoast policy incrementalism of Clinton, and eventually, he was also the vessel for people who didn’t want a Clinton coronation.
In 2020, Sanders will face a number of candidates who now share many of his views on free healthcare, debt-free college, job guarantees, and so on. Liberals who were trying to draft Warren in 2016 can now vote for her. They could also choose Sens. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., Cory Booker, D-N.J., or Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., all of whom signed on to his “Medicare for all” proposal as well as the Green New Deal.
Sanders could run as being the more authentic advocate for left-wing policies that have now become more mainstream within the Democratic Party. But there’s another issue he faces. In 2016, the fact that he was the only show in town for Democratic voters who favored more radical policies, helped him overcome the fact that he was running as an old, white male against a candidate who had a good shot at being the first female presidential candidate. This time around, he’ll be facing a much more diverse field.
Put another way, in 2016, Sanders had the market all to himself, but after he enjoyed so much success and spawned a movement, many imitators flooded the market, and he no longer has exclusivity. That’s why he’ll likely go bust in 2020.
