Signs of a Good Year for GOP

The Democrats’ problem is that they seemingly find themselves in a position similar to that of Republicans in 2006: They are in tight races.  But so far, they seem unable to move past where the fundamentals suggest they should be able to go: Recall again that their maximum showing has generally been bounded at 47 percent. 
This is true even though Democrats have generally dominated the air wars recently.  They’ve succeeded in driving down Republican numbers, or holding them in check.  But they haven’t improved their own. Here, the Peters-Land race in Michigan is instructive.  In early September, Gary Peters’ lead was 3.8 points.  Today it is 5.4 points.   But his numbers are largely unmoved: 45.3 percent at the beginning of the month, 44.3 percent today.  Terri Lynn Land’s numbers, however, have tanked: from 41.5 percent to 38.9 percent. 
But we know that this race will not have a 44.3 percent-38.9 percent outcome — sooner or later the undecided voters will begin to decide.  And given that the Democrats are winning the votes of almost everyone who approves of the president’s job, they will have an uphill — though hardly insurmountable — battle with undecided voters. 
If this theory is right, we should expect to see these races continue on the basic trajectory we’ve seen over the past few weeks: Democrats holding at their current levels.  Eventually, Republicans should begin or continue to improve, as undecided voters engage and make up their minds, and as Republicans narrow the spending battles.  Even if this theory is true, it won’t occur in every race, but it will be the general tendency.

House Republicans are eyeing pickup opportunities this cycle in enemy territory — the liberal states of California, Illinois and New York.
Districts in the trio of solid-blue states provide the GOP some of its best chances to knock off incumbents, as Republicans look to grow their congressional majority and reach their ambitious goal of 245 seats.
If Democrats hope to make gains, they have to protect their own and take out some Republicans themselves. In an unfavorable midterm election year, that’s looking less likely, even in the traditionally Democratic states.

November 4 is likely to lead to a GOP takeover of the Senate after eight long years of Democratic control, and to perhaps the largest GOP majority in the House in modern times. It’s an election that could—that should—set the stage for victory in 2016, as the Democrats’ triumph in 2006 set the stage for victory in 2008. So even though it’s contrary to interest for an opinion magazine to suggest a time out from groaning and sniping and grumbling—and even though we reserve the right to groan and snipe and grumble at our discretion—maybe it’s a good moment for everyone out there who thinks the country is endangered by Barack Obama, that it is being damaged by Harry Reid, and that it would be ruined by another Democratic presidential victory in 2016 to take a deep breath, let bygones be bygones, leave future concerns to the future, and work to win in November.
Fear of the Democrats should be a sufficient motive. But is there anything else to be said to inspire voters to vote, donors to donate, and activists to activate?
Yes. The Republican class of 2014 candidates are very impressive. A glance at their biographies would show an unusual number of high-quality men and women, many of whom have real achievements outside politics, few of whom are career politicians or children of politicians. From Tom Cotton in Arkansas to Joni Ernst in Iowa; from Ben Sasse in Nebraska to Dan Sullivan in Alaska; from Elise Stefanik in upstate New York to Lee Zeldin on Long Island; from Marilinda Garcia in western New Hampshire to Martha McSally in southeastern Arizona—a new generation of Republicans has stepped forward worthy of support.