At their annual conference, members of Britain’s Labour Party have passed a resolution on Tuesday endorsing a second referendum on the terms of any Brexit deal. With Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn saying he will accept his members’ resolution, the decision means any future Labour government might keep Britain in the European Union if voters reject any Brexit deal.
Yet while she is under pressure in her negotiations with the European Union, Labour’s decision strengthens Conservative Party Prime Minister Theresa May. It effectively clarifies the choice for voters between one of Brexit on some terms, and no Brexit at all. And while it’s true that a plurality of voters likely now oppose Brexit per se, they are far from united on what they wish to see in place of Brexit. Some, like the Liberal Democrats (a centrist-left party), want Brexit totally annulled and Britain in an ever closer relationship with the EU from inside the EU. But Labour Party voters are far from united on whether it is even right to hold a second referendum. And in marginal constituencies, the perceived threat to Brexit will help define who wins the next election. If pro-Brexit Labour Party voters end up protesting their party’s new position, many may choose the U.K. Independence Party, or even hold their noses and vote for the Conservatives.
That matters in that the latest polls suggest that the Conservatives have a small 2-4 percentage point lead over Labour. While that lead will narrow if any new election is called, the polls also show the Liberal Democrats at 10 percent, and UKIP at around 5 percent. But where Liberal Democrat voters tend to be more committed to their party and less likely to vote Labour, UKIP voters view their party affiliation through the sole prism of Britain’s position in or out of the EU. Correspondingly, if faced with a binary choice between a Conservative government that is promising to leave the EU, and a Labour government that is offering the possibility of staying in the EU, those voters may pick the Conservatives so as to protect Brexit.
All in all, I think that gives the Conservatives enough votes to win the next election. Now whether that election is fought by Theresa May or by another Conservative leader is another question altogether. Still, the simple takeaway is that Labour’s decision today is a very risky one. By being seen to challenge a structural democratic mandate for Brexit by heading towards another referendum, Labour risks losing crucial voters and the next election.
