This Democratic presidential nomination battle has the feel of the party’s disastrous 1972 contests that resulted in a 49-state landslide for Republican incumbent Richard Nixon over left-wing Sen. George McGovern of South Dakota.
That Democratic tussle, like this one, featured a multicandidate field navigating an uncertain and volatile Democratic electorate. Like this race, with socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders making the party establishment extremely nervous, the 1972 primaries pushed to the fore a candidate, McGovern, seen as so radical that party insiders appeared to be in full panic mode. And, as in this year with Joe Biden, in 1972, a former vice president, Hubert Humphrey, was seen as at least a co-favorite early on but couldn’t sustain any advantage.
In addition to McGovern and Humphrey, the 1972 Democratic war’s major contenders included Maine’s well-respected Sen. Edmund Muskie, former giant-slaying Sen. Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota (who effectively pushed President Lyndon Johnson out of the 1968 race), and Alabama Gov. George Wallace, making his third run for the presidency. Nobody was able to become a clear front-runner. Humphrey won five Rust Belt contests; Wallace won eight primaries (or state conventions), and tied for first in two others, and was on a major roll not even in non-Southern states before an assassination attempt left him paralyzed. Late-peaking Sen. Scoop Jackson of Washington state won seven contests; Muskie won five; and U.S. Rep. Shirley Chisholm of New York became the first black candidate to win contests with one outright win and two ties.
In sum, the race was extremely fluid. McGovern did end up winning 21 contests, clearly outpacing the rest. Yet, it was far from obvious that McGovern would amass an actual majority of convention delegates, especially with the establishment coalescing strongly behind Jackson after Humphrey dropped out, despite having won more popular votes (but not delegates) nationwide than McGovern had.
As results come in from New Hampshire’s primary, it seems likely that this year, as in 1972, multiple candidates will be able to remain competitive for quite some time, rather than having the nomination fight settle into a two-person race. Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Michael Bloomberg (because of his vast wealth) all seem to have a chance for real staying power. And while Biden seems to be all but dead in the water, there still remains a narrow window for him to remain relevant if he can somehow pull out a win in South Carolina.
And, of course, Hillary Clinton waits eagerly in the wings, hoping that the party turns to her in desperation if the messy muddle continues. (In a lesser way, so, too, does former nominee John Kerry.)
The one difference between this field and the one in 1972 is that the 1972 candidates had significantly higher stature entering the battle than this year’s group (other than Biden) does. McCarthy, Muskie, and Humphrey all were quite well known and respected then, Wallace was a major (if horridly flawed) national figure, and Jackson, while little known to the public, was a legislative powerhouse.
Without such gravitas, this year’s gang is in some ways positioned even worse to battle the Republican president than the 1972 political giants.
Seeing this crazy quilt of weak-ish contenders battle it out, with the most radical one, Sanders, as the putative front-runner, must make President Trump very happy. Like Nixon before him, Trump has total control of his own party, along with a killer instinct. Democrats must realize they are in a precarious position against him. What they can do about it is anybody’s guess.
