The Robert Mueller hearings were not great for Democrats. At best, Mueller merely confirmed aspects of his report that everybody watching the hearing already knew about. At worst, they revealed the leader of the investigation against President Trump to appear faltering and unfamiliar with basic details in the report. But they served one important purpose: helping House Speaker Nancy Pelosi run out the clock on impeachment.
It’s been abundantly clear since Democrats retook the House that Pelosi is deathly afraid of impeachment. The idea doesn’t poll well and even starting an impeachment inquiry, in her mind, would galvanize Republicans while doing little to endear Democrats to swing voters. She wants to move on from impeachment talk, and focus on passing popular legislation in the House that unites Democrats and gets blocked by Senate Republicans, giving them issues to run on in 2020.
But House Democrats still had to find a way to quell a restive base and liberals in their own caucus demanding Trump be held accountable. Pelosi knew that once the calendar got close enough to 2020, she could argue that they’re too close to an election year, so they should just focus on beating Trump. The challenge was to somehow bridge the gap between the time they took office and the fall.
So what happened after Democrats came to power in January is that they wanted to wait for the Mueller report. When it came out, it put Democrats in a difficult position. By failing to establish coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia and leaving the question of obstruction open ended, it became easy for Republicans to dismiss it without fearing pressure back home. But there was enough in it to convince liberals that Trump should be impeached for obstruction.
Since the release, Democrats have set up a series of tent pole events. Waiting for Barr to testify, fighting for an unredacted Mueller report, filing various subpoenas and holding contempt votes, all eventually culminating with this week’s Mueller testimony.
The months of anticipation for Mueller to speak helped get Pelosi to late July. And now on Friday, the House is expected to go into recess for six weeks, bringing them into September. By that point, the Democratic primaries will become intense, as the field gets whittled down. With the calendar nearing the end of the year and Iowa and New Hampshire quickly approaching, there’s no way Democrats are going to start the impeachment hearings and the calls to do so will get taken over by the campaign.
So, if Mueller accomplished nothing else, he did help Pelosi make it to recess without having to impeach.
