Experts are split over what impact last week’s failed coup attempt could have on Turkey’s participation in the F-35 program, in which it is a partner.
Turkey is expected to buy about 100 of the joint-strike fighters, built by Lockheed Martin, and also is a partner in the design and building of the F-35. Ten Turkish companies are building parts of the plane, from pieces of the airframe to the cockpit display.
Richard Aboulafia, the vice president of analysis at the Teal Group, said last week’s attempted military coup is unlikely to have any impact on the Turkish industrial base, and that even if it does, each contribution by a Turkish company could be procured elsewhere.
But the instability could make the government hesitant to give too much power to the military, since it just tried to overthrow political leaders. As a result, Turkey could buy fewer big-ticket items, like the F-35, to ensure that the military does not have those tools at its disposal in another attempt to overthrow the government, Aboulafia said.
Instead, he said the Turkish government may also decide to invest more heavily in its domestic security forces, which were called in to end the attempted overthrow of the government. That could mean less money goes to the military and, as a result, to foreign buys like the F-35.
A spokeswoman for Lockheed Martin directed any inquiries on cuts to the program to the F-35 Joint Program Office, which did not return a request for comment.
During a call with reporters on Tuesday to discuss second quarter earnings, however, Lockheed CEO Marillyn Hewson said Turkey “remains a vital NATO ally” after the coup attempt.
“We look forward to continuing our business relationship there and across a number of programs that we have. We have not seen any indication that it will impact the F-35 or any of our other programs. So we will continue to assess the situation and make sure — we will share with you if there is any impact on our business.”
J.V. Venable, a senior research fellow in defense policy at the Heritage Foundation, said it’s unlikely the number of jets will be cut because of the positive impact it has on the economy and jobs, as well as the need to replace the Turks’ aging fleet of F-16s.
“They’ve put $195 million into the [research and development] side of F-35,” Venable said. “While that wouldn’t necessarily become sunk money, it is an investment that they’ve made.”
He also said that the people, not the platforms, are the biggest issue that could lead to another coup, and that the Turkish government has largely fixed any future issues by clearing the military ranks of those who oppose their ideas and staged the attempted overthrow.
“If you gut those folks out, and I think [President Recep Tayyip Erodgan] has done a pretty good job of removing his enemies here, when you take those folks out, now you have believers in your ideology operating the machinery and you still face challenges exterior to country,” Venable said, noting that Turkey still needs to be prepared to face threats from the Islamic State, Russia and Greece.
Even if the number of jets Turkey purchases is reduced, Aboulafia said any change is unlikely to have a significant impact on the cost for other partners. In a program where allies are expected to buy thousands of planes, even halving the Turkish purchase 50 planes would not have a meaningful impact on cost, he said.
Several other nations are participating in the F-35 acquisition program, including Australia, Canada, Denmark, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, United Kingdom and South Korea.
