Since Sen. John McCain derided two of the nation’s most powerful televangelists — Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell — as “agents of intolerance” in 2000, the Arizona senator has sought to soothe anger and distrust among conservative Christians. But in Virginia, the base of both Robertson and Falwell, who died last year, evangelical voters haven’t forgotten the 2000 speech, said Mathew Staver, dean of Falwell’s Liberty University School of Law in Lynchburg. “He’s got some bridges to mend,” Staver said.
It’s a rift that political observers say will hurt McCain in Virginia’s Feb. 12 primary.
“The big question is whether any forgiveness that occurs gets transferred to the ballot box,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. “This is a Republican electorate that is naturally far less supportive of McCain than electorates in other states.”
But the Republicans and Democrats face a changing political tide in Virginia, especially in the affluent Washington suburbs, which have helped put Democratic candidates into office, including Gov. Tim Kaine in 2005 and Sen. Jim Webb in 2006. Former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, is favored to win Virginia’s Senate election in 2008.
It remains to be seen which Democratic presidential hopeful will benefit from the shift, Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York or Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois.
The parts of Northern Virginia that have turned the state more Democratic are more likely to favor Obama, said John McGlennon, a political science professor at the College of William and Mary. He points to the ethnic diversity of Washington’s suburban explosion. But Sean O’Brien, executive director for the Center for the Constitution at Montpelier, said the Obama-Clinton contest is still too close to predict in Virginia, in light of what he believes could be record-breaking turnout in both parties. O’Brien also predicted large conservative turnout in the Republican primary, which is open to all registered voters, that could hurt McCain.
Jerry Kilgore, former state attorney general and co-chairman of McCain’s Virginia campaign, disagreed. “We all have to recognize that John McCain is far more conservative than Hillary Clinton and BarackObama,” he said. “At the end of the day he will be a conservative president.”
Virginia
– Registered voters:
4,585,828 (as of Jan. 1)
– Men: 49.2%
Women: 50.8%
– White: 67.7%
Black: 19.9%
Hispanic: 6.3%
Asian: 4.8%
– Democratic delegates: 101
Republican delegates: 63
– Recent presidential votes
2000:
Bush: 52.5%
Gore: 44.4%
2004:
Bush: 54%
Kerry: 46%
