The two-month old peace agreement that essentially ceded more than 1/3 of one of Pakistan’s four provinces to the Taliban collapsed today after the pro-Taliban negotiator complained that the government wouldn’t sign the law allowing for sharia. Sufi Mohammed, the leader of the radical pro-Taliban group known as the Movement for the Enforcement of Mohammed’s Law, negotiated the agreement between the Taliban and the government. He called the deal off after blaming President Asif Ali Zardari for not signing the law that would allow his minions to impose sharia. While the Pakistani government and many in the media have painted Sufi as an agent for peace, it should be remembered that he led more than 10,000 of his men to fight the U.S. military in Afghanistan and is the father-in-law of Mullah Fazlullah, the leader of the Swat Taliban. Fazlullah is so radical that he opposes polio vaccinations for children (he believes the vaccinations are part of a plot to sterilize the Muslim world) and violently opposes the education of young girls (his fighters have bombed almost 200 schools in Swat). Pakistan watchers shouldn’t be shocked this agreement collapsed. Two similar agreements in Swat that were signed in 2007 and 2008 also failed. During the time the most recent agreement was in place, as with the last two, the Taliban never lived up to their end of the bargain and continued to attack government forces and conduct armed patrols. Just as intense battles followed the endings of the last two agreements, expect a new wave of violence to take hold in Swat. While it is a good sign that President Zardari was disinclined to sign the agreement, many in the provincial and federal governments as well as in the military establishment will seek to revive it. And that is the real problem in Pakistan. Far too many people in positions of power view radicals such as Fazlullah and Sufi Mohammed as people who can be negotiated with or as strategic assets against India. Technically you can negotiate with these extremisits, if negotiating means accepting their terms unconditionally. There is no consensus in the government and the military on how to deal with the rise of the Taliban, or even if it should be dealt with. As the government dithers, Pakistan continues to slide towards chaos.
