HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. — Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in their first of three presidential debates, but it may not ultimately change the trajectory of the race.
Here’s why Clinton won:
Clinton pushed Trump off his game more than Trump pushed Clinton off of hers. After getting off to a strong start by emphasizing his economic message, Trump faltered as the debate went on. He undermined his populist appeal by making repeated references to gaming the system to his advantage without making a broader point. For instance, when Clinton attacked Trump for rooting for the housing market collapse so he could profit, he simply interjected, “That’s called business, by the way” — rather than explain what he meant (one explanation might be that good businessmen are prepared for any environment); when Clinton said he didn’t pay federal income taxes, Trump said, “That makes me smart.” Trump also became aggravated in the debate — he sighed into the microphone, repeatedly interrupted Clinton and moderator Lester Holt in a way that risked coming off as rude. Clinton, in contrast, generally ignored or laughed off some of Trump’s more bombastic statements.
Clinton reassured supporters and the Democratic base. After weeks of declining poll numbers, Clinton came into the debate running the risk that supporters were going to start to feel dejected. But the debate performance likely increased the confidence of those pulling for Clinton, making them less worried that she was going to blow the election. Furthermore, she emphasized a lot of the issues important to the liberal base — raising the minimum wage, increasing infrastructure spending, instituting paid leave and profit sharing arrangements. She also fully embraced Obama.
She implicitly answered questions about her health. Trump questioned whether Clinton had the “stamina” to be president, but during the debate she seemed alert and didn’t exhibit any signs of major health problems.
On the other hand, here’s why Trump’s debate performance may not end up costing him much:
Trump had a spotty performance in the primaries and it didn’t matter. Yes, just because something was true during the primaries doesn’t mean it will prove true during the general election. But this background should at least give the media pause when declaring Trump the loser. Trump was declared a loser of many, if not all, primary debates — yet ultimately voters embraced his brash style.
