President Trump’s decision to completely cave to Democrats by agreeing to reopen the government without getting anything in return has made it significantly more likely that he’s going to declare an emergency in a few weeks to try and build a border wall.
Though technically he only agreed to an extension of funding through Feb. 15, it’s highly unlikely that he’s going to force another government shutdown. Last month, even though most people predicted it would end this way, the outcome of any shutdown fight was always theoretical. Now it’s already been played out. He tried the shutdown gambit for over a month, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., did not budge, and there’s zero reason it would work next time.
What is going to happen in the coming weeks is that immigration hawks are going to pummel Trump for the biggest presidential cave since President George H.W. Bush broke his “no new taxes” pledge. This process has already started.
So when Feb. 15 comes, Trump is going to be in a bind. He’ll be extremely embarrassed to have to cave yet again on a long-term deal without border wall funding. Agreeing to another short-term deal will just mean that every few weeks there will be another story about him caving into Pelosi on his signature domestic policy promise.
But if he declares a national emergency, he can portray it as a powerful action that shows he is willing to do everything he can to get a border wall. The issue will be tied up in courts, possibly even through the 2020 election, so he could always defer questions about the border wall by saying it’s currently being decided in the courts. If the courts uphold his ability to build the wall, it will be seen as a big victory. If they shoot him down, he has somebody to point fingers at (though as previously described, it gets awkward if Justices Neil Gorsuch and/or Brett Kavanaugh rule against him).
To be sure, declaring an emergency would set a terrible precedent and as I have written, carries tremendous risks for conservatives, particularly those who care about limiting the power of the executive branch. But at this point, the political logic for Trump seems inescapable.
