British Prime Minister Theresa May is in crisis mode. For all her efforts, she can’t get Brexit through Parliament, and her party is losing faith in her leadership.
Because May’s Brexit agreement has been unable to win parliamentary passage, she has been negotiating with the Labour Party opposition to reach a compromise deal that gets Brexit over the finish line. With Brexit delayed from April to October, many in May’s Conservative Party are concerned that delays have led to compromises and more delays.
Things got worse for May on Monday, when Labour’s chief Brexit negotiator, Sir Keir Starmer, suggested that any Brexit agreement with May would also require a second referendum. This is a nonstarter for May, who has consistently argued that the original 2016 referendum result must be honored.
But what does she do if Labour doesn’t budge? May says she’ll take the old Brexit options back to Parliament for more votes, but that seems implausible. After all, those options have already and repeatedly been voted down. All of this feeds a looming uprising by Conservative members of Parliament. Disappointing local election results and the prospect of another bloody nose in the May 23rd European parliamentary elections mean Conservatives are sharpening their political knives. It bears noting, here, that the Conservative Party is notorious for its ruthless treatment of leaders.
Even then, it’s not at all clear how May’s replacement could do better. Brexit requires parliamentary assent, but because most MPs support either a “Soft Brexit” that retains close British economic links to the EU, or a second referendum, ardent Brexiteer Conservatives seem unlikely to get a “Hard Brexit” passed.
So while there is no shortage of credible replacements for May (my picks are Sajid Javid or Rory Stewart), they’ll face the the same challenges as May does now.
