IF A DEMOCRATIC TSUNAMI emerges on Election Day, then it’s reasonable to expect California to surf the wave. After all, it’s the big blue nation-state that George W. Bush has twice lost by more than 1.2 million votes. Since 1998, with the exception of the 2003 special election, Democrats have won 16 of 17 contests for statewide office.

So why is Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger coasting to reelection in a year when Republicans are likely to lose their advantage in governorships?