Russian President Vladimir Putin is better at thinking tactically than strategically, CIA Director John Brennan said on Friday, as indicated by actions in Ukraine and Syria.
Asked at the Aspen Security Forum to judge whether Putin is more of a tactical or strategic thinker, Brennan said, “He’s a misguided thinker,” but that if he needed to pick one, “He’s on the tactical side of the thinking arena.”
“What we try to do in the intelligence community, whether it’s Putin or someone else, [is that] we try to identify what are the factors, what are the drivers behind his actions. What are the considerations behind what he’s trying to achieve?” Brennan said.
“You look at Ukraine. It was an emotional reaction there. He was very concerned that Ukraine was drifting westward, it was going to join the EU and NATO or whatever, and he was going to stop it at whatever cost. So he was able to go into Crimea and basically annex it, and take control of the separatists in the Eastern part of Ukraine,” Brennan added.
“Sanctions are still in place against Russia. It continues to face serious economic problems. We’re no closer to having a solution inside of Ukraine. Where does he go from here? He’s hoping that over time, the West and Europe and the U.S. are going to get tired of the sanctions regime. No.”
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“He moved into Syria … with major military force to stop the collapse of the Assad regime,” Brennan noted. “Where is he going from here? What is he going to do in terms of the political steps … so that he can preserve his interests? Syria is by the far most complicated issue I’ve ever had to deal with in my national security career, bar none, because there are so many external, internal actors, so many factors, a lot of our objectives are in direct tension with one another.”
“I see Putin playing checkers here when this really is a five-dimensional chess game, and you really need to be very careful and deliberative in how you move your pieces,” Brennan opined. “I don’t see Putin doing that. I think he’s used brute force whether you’re talking about Ukraine or talking about Syria, and he’s hoping the chips are going to fall in the right place.”
“I think he’s been able to achieve a fair amount of tactical progress, but in the longer term effort, my money’s still on the United States,” he concluded.
