President Joe Biden is underwater in his job approval ratings, all major pollsters agree. But there is a disagreement over exactly how deep underwater he is.
The latest Monmouth poll shows Biden at just 39% approval to 55%, a difference of 16 percentage points. This puts Biden’s numbers in line with the New York Times/Siena College poll, Trafalgar, and the latest YouGov survey, which all have Biden with 39% approval. Reuters has Biden at 40% approval.
On the other hand, the latest Fox News, CBS News, and CNBC polls record Biden’s job approval rating at 46%, Politico and Rasmussen at 44%. That’s still underwater by anywhere from 4 to 11 points, but it’s a big difference.
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Over the summer, Biden’s approval ratings bottomed out in the 30s. Democratic operatives began speaking in hushed tones about a different presidential nominee in 2024. More urgently, a red wave looked to be on the horizon this November.
Then the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Biden had some legislative successes after his agenda had seemed stalled for months, including a second reconciliation bill, the Inflation Reduction Act. Biden had a top al Qaeda terrorist killed in a strike. Former President Donald Trump was back in the headlines.
Biden’s numbers then crept upward into the mid-40s, triggering all kinds of commentary that we had seen a red mirage and Republicans were going to blow the midterm elections. Much of the improvement appeared to be Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents coming home.
Even at the time, Biden was still unpopular and Republicans were still likely to win the House. But it no longer looked like Democrats needed to worry about disenchanted liberals. Their chances of retaining the Senate, or even expanding their majority, improved. And the GOP’s hopes of making inroads in bluer areas seemed remote.
If Biden is heading back into the 30s and low 40s just 18 days before the election, the red wave could yet reach the shore. Biden is at 42.7% approval in the RealClearPolitics polling average, 42.5% in FiveThirtyEight’s.
This has implications for the Senate, where Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have upped their calls to elect two additional Democratic members to push past the filibuster and codify Roe. In the close races, a lot of undecided voters who disapprove of Biden’s performance in office will need to vote for Democrats in order for them to win. In Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, Biden’s numbers are probably worse than they are nationally.
If Biden’s numbers are once again in free fall, it also suggests that inflation and the economy remain the dominant issues. Gas prices ticking back up and discouraging signs that inflation remains hot, suggesting the Federal Reserve may need to induce a recession to bring consumer prices back under control, are the likeliest explanations for Biden’s numbers.
A loss in the House would prevent Biden and Democrats from doing much legislating, especially on liberal policy priorities. Losing the Senate would impede their ability to fill judicial and executive branch vacancies, including the Supreme Court.
Polls vary in terms of whether they sample registered voters, likely voters, or all adults. But they also differ in their assumptions about who is going to turn out. Pollsters missed some support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. They also underestimated support for Ron DeSantis in the 2018 Florida governor’s race.
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Republicans are wondering if the polls might be a little bit off again this year, and if so whether it will once again be in their favor. If the polls showing Biden below 40% approval are correct, no errors will be necessary for a good GOP night.
