NFL Week 9: Three games you can’t miss

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Indianapolis Colts (5-2), 1 p.m. ET on CBS

The Ravens not only lost to their archrivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, last week, but they also lost All-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey this week because he tested positive for COVID-19. Several other Ravens are at risk after they did contract tracing. They’re isolating but may not be available for the game.

Lamar Jackson presents a unique problem for the Colts’ defense, but it’s clear that he is not playing like the MVP quarterback we saw a year ago. He’s completing fewer than 61% of his passes and has just 12 touchdown passes on the year. He’s leading the team in rushing and averaging over 6 yards per carry, but he also has just two rushing touchdowns. Baltimore’s rushing offense was deadly last year. This year, no Baltimore running back is averaging over 44 yards per game.

Top receiver Marquise Brown tweeted out his displeasure with his lack of involvement in the offense but later deleted the tweet after head coach John Harbaugh texted him about it. The Ravens have plenty of talent to throw to with Brown, tight end Mark Andrews, and Willie Snead IV. They haven’t played to their ability this year. Perhaps last week’s loss will jolt a potential sleeping giant.

The Colts have had their own COVID-19 problems as well, as a member of their staff tested positive earlier this week. The Colts might be one of the league’s most underrated teams. They’re 5-2 and in a tie for first place in the AFC South with the Tennessee Titans.

Indianapolis has the league’s fifth-best scoring defense, the second-best run defense, and the sixth-best pass defense. No team has allowed fewer yards to opponents, and they’re third in points allowed and yards per play allowed. Darius Leonard’s return last week, along with his late strip-sack of Matthew Stafford, provided a big boost to an already formidable group.

There’s no doubt that the defense continues to lead the way, but the Colts have put up 31 and 41 points in the last two games. Thanks to the recent output, the Colts now have the NFL’s 10th-best scoring offense as well.

Philip Rivers has six touchdown passes and just one pick in the last two games. If he can continue this stretch of good play, the Colts might be able to hold their own with the Ravens. Jonathan Taylor hasn’t dazzled the way many thought he would after Marlon Mack went down for the season. The Colts are 25th in rushing yards per game and 11th in passing yards per game. Star receiver T.Y. Hilton still doesn’t have a touchdown catch this year. I expect that to change this week with Humphrey’s absence.

There are many surprising things about the Colts’ passing attack this year, but one of the biggest is that running back Nyheim Hines leads the team in catches with 26. Hilton is next with 22, and no one else has more than 19. The Colts have also used three tight ends in the offense. One of those three, Trey Burton, has a pair of rushing touchdowns.

Lamar Jackson is my X-factor this week. He needs to bounce back but will have to do so against an elite defense.

The line: Baltimore Ravens (-2.0)

The pick: When the Browns played the Colts earlier this season (and the Colts lost), I said that Indianapolis would have trouble stopping Cleveland’s multiple offensive threats and would likely fail to keep pace on offense. Baltimore presents the same problem for them but also has a better quarterback and a better defense. I’m taking the Ravens to win and cover.

Seattle Seahawks (6-1) at Buffalo Bills (6-2), 1 p.m. ET on FOX

Last week, I reminded you that Russell Wilson was 31-8 after an in-season loss and picked the Seahawks to beat the San Francisco 49ers. He proceeded to throw four touchdown passes with no picks and complete 73% of his passes on the way to a 10-point win.

The Seahawks are first in the NFL in scoring offense and third in passing offense. Wilson is at the center of it all and leads the league in touchdown passes with 26.

Seattle’s running backs have been ravaged by injury, but DeeJay Dallas did a great job filling in last week. Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde might not be back this week, but Dallas likely won’t have to go it alone either. Either way, the Seahawks are a team capable of keeping teams honest enough running the football to allow Wilson the time and space he needs to air it out.

It should be clear to opponents at this point that the Seahawks don’t have a No. 1 receiver and a No. 2 receiver. They have two No. 1 receivers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. While Lockett leads the way in catches with 49, Metcalf has more receiving yards (680 to 575) and catches of 20 yards or more. Both have seven touchdown catches and are capable of torching opposing defenses.

The Bills have the NFL’s 11th-best passing defense and will definitely be tested on Sunday, but Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have got to be licking their chops going up against Seattle’s pass defense. No team in the league allows more yards through their air per game than Seattle does. Diggs has 54 catches this year for 695 yards and three touchdowns. He has 10 plays of 20 yards or more on the season, so he’s a threat to beat you deep or catch a screen pass and beat you in space.

Allen started the season piling up huge passing numbers, but the offense has been buoyed by the run game recently. The Bills averaged over 150 yards per game in their last two contests.

Despite the recent boost, the Bills’ running game is still in the bottom tier in terms of average yards per game. Buffalo needed that tough physicality and got it in their very close wins against the New York Jets and the New England Patriots. The Seahawks have the league’s ninth-best rushing defense, so this seems like the perfect time for Josh Allen to go back to slinging it around.

While Allen doesn’t have a touchdown pass in the last two games, he has done a great job of managing the offense and doing enough to get the win. He has the Bills at 6-2 and in prime position to win the AFC East. He has thrown for 16 touchdowns this season with five interceptions but is also second on the team in rushing and has an additional four touchdowns on the ground.

I believe the underrated stat in this game will be red-zone offense. The Seahawks are easily the best team in the NFL when they get it inside the 20 and are scoring touchdowns on 88% of their trips to the red zone.

The Bills have scored 30 or more points in three games this season. The Seahawks have scored 30 or more in all but one of them. The Bills will need to hold Seattle to field goals in the red zone because they don’t really don’t want to put themselves in a shootout with Wilson.

The line: Seattle Seahawks (-3.0)

The pick: Buffalo has proven to be a very tough team to beat, but I’m taking the Seahawks to win and cover.

New Orleans Saints (5-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2), 8:20 p.m. ET NBC

Alvin Kamara is having a historic season for the Saints this year, and they’ve needed every single bit of it. His 55 catches through his team’s first seven games of the season are the most by a running back in NFL history, and his 556 receiving yards by a running back through his first seven games are the most since Lenny More racked up 608 receiving yards through seven games back in 1958. As ESPN’s Mike Triplett wrote, “He is on pace for 985 rushing yards, 1,271 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns.”

Tampa Bay will have something to say about that, though, since the Buccaneers have the top rushing defense in the NFL and are allowing fewer than 71 rushing yards per game.

What’s even more impressive about Kamara’s performance is that he has done almost all of this without Michael Thomas on the field to help him. Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders might return this week and give the Saints their full array of offensive options for the first time since Week 1.

Drew Brees isn’t challenging teams down the field as much and is simply taking what defenses are giving him. He has thrown for 13 touchdowns this season with only three interceptions and is completing over 73% of his passes.

The Saints have been consistently messing with their fans’ blood pressure this season. They’ve had to rally to beat the Detroit Lions, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Carolina Panthers, and the Chicago Bears. The wins might be ugly, but they still count. The defense needs to improve as they head to Tampa to face a Buccaneers team with a lot of confidence.

After falling to the Bears, the Buccaneers blew out the Green Bay Packers and the Las Vegas Raiders before squeaking by the hapless New York Giants on Monday Night Football. They have a top-five scoring offense and a top-10 scoring defense. That’s an outstanding combo for any team, especially one that has Tom Brady under center.

The Buccaneers stockpiled a massive amount of offensive talent around Brady, and he has predictably had a great season. Like New Orleans, Tampa Bay has a top-10 passing offense. Brady has thrown for 20 touchdowns with a mere four interceptions. He also has nearly 2,200 passing yards on the season and is completing over 66% of his passes.

While the rushing attack hasn’t been as potent, the dangerous receiving corps of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, and tight end Rob Gronkowski just got even stronger with the addition of Antonio Brown. Brown is an all-world talent and an all-world head case. He has a very good relationship with Brady, and I expect the greatest quarterback in NFL history to throw early and often to one of the best receivers in NFL history.

Brown’s career average of 86 receiving yards per game is fourth in NFL history. He’s in the top 30 all-time in catches and in the top 35 all-time in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.

I did a little research on Brown’s top years as a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers to recall how dominant he was. From 2013 to 2018, he was All-Pro in four of them and was voted to the Pro Bowl in all six.

He started in 90 of a possible 92 games and averaged over 99 receiving yards a game during those six years. Here’s what his average 16-game season looks like: 119 catches and 1,590 receiving yards with 12 touchdown catches.

If you don’t think Brady is going to throw Brown’s way on Sunday, you’re kidding yourself.

The line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.0)

The pick: The Buccaneers are balanced, they are rolling, and they face a defense that has given up 19 passing touchdowns, second-most in the NFL. I’m taking the Buccaneers to win and cover.

Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.