There are only two weeks remaining in college football’s regular season (three, counting Army-Navy), and it’s becoming pretty clear which teams still have a shot at making the 4-team playoff field. Last week, 16 teams still appeared to be alive. Now, with Houston, TCU, and Utah having lost, that list is down to 13. Here’s what each of the 13 needs to do—and/or hope for—to make the field of 4.
The “Sure Things” (if they take care of business):
(11-0) Iowa (#1 in the Anderson & Hester Rankings): Win out (at Nebraska—#53 in the A&H Rankings—and versus Michigan State (or possibly versus Michigan or Ohio State) in the Big Ten Championship Game). In that case, the Hawkeyes’ ticket will be punched. Otherwise, lose at Nebraska, win the following week to claim the Big Ten title, and then hope for the best from the subjective 13-member selection committee that will unilaterally determine the playoff field. (In that scenario, a Clemson, Notre Dame, or Oklahoma loss might be enough.)
(11-0) Clemson (#2 in the A&H Rankings): Win out (at South Carolina (#85 in the A&H Rankings) and versus North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game). Otherwise, lose to South Carolina, bounce back to win the ACC title, and hope for a train wreck among the other top teams.
(10-1) Alabama (#3 in the A&H Rankings): Win out (at Auburn (#46 in the A&H Rankings) and versus Florida in the SEC Championship Game). Otherwise, lose to Auburn, beat Florida to become the SEC champs, and hope for a few undefeated or 1-loss teams to fall.
(10-1) Michigan State (#4 in the A&H Rankings): Win out (at home against Penn State (#37 the A&H Rankings) and versus Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game). There’s almost no chance that a 1-loss Big Ten champion that has beaten Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa (with none of those games at home), along with Oregon (#18 in the A&H Rankings), and whose only loss involved a blown call on the game’s decisive play at Nebraska, will get left out of the playoff field. The Big Ten has too much clout, and Michigan State’s resume would be too strong. Even in the unlikely event that Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma all win out, the Spartans will presumably get one of the four spots, at either Notre Dame’s or Oklahoma’s expense.
The “Probablies” (if they take care of business):
(10-1) Notre Dame (#5 in the A&H Rankings): Win at Stanford—that would likely be enough, but a Clemson or Oklahoma loss would make things a lot more certain. (The Irish would also presumably prevail over a 2-loss SEC or Big Ten champ.)
(10-1) Oklahoma (#6 in the A&H Rankings): Win at Oklahoma State, and have either Clemson or Notre Dame lose. (Like Notre Dame, the Sooners would also presumably prevail over a 2-loss SEC or Big Ten champ.) Otherwise, win impressively in Bedlam, and hope the committee picks the Sooners over the Irish.
(10-1) Florida (#7 in the A&H Rankings): Win at home against Florida State (#30 in the A&H Rankings), have Alabama beat Auburn, and then beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. If all three of these things happen—and two of them are likely—Florida will be a lock. Otherwise, beat FSU, have Alabama lose to Auburn, and then beat either Alabama or Mississippi (if Ole Miss beats Mississippi State) to win the SEC title, and hope for the best. (In that scenario, a Clemson, Notre Dame, or Oklahoma loss would likely be enough.)
The “Dark Horses” (if they take care of business):
(10-1) Ohio State (#8 in the A&H Rankings): Win at Michigan, have Penn State beat Michigan State, beat Iowa to win the Big Ten title, and hope either Clemson, Notre Dame or Oklahoma loses (or that the SEC champ has two losses), or else hope the committee gives the nod to the Buckeyes over either a 1-loss Notre Dame or 1-loss Oklahoma. Otherwise (if Michigan State beats Penn State), beat Michigan and hope for a train wreck.
(9-1) Baylor (#10 in the A&H Rankings): Win at TCU (#15 in the A&H Rankings), win at home against Texas (#58 in the A&H Rankings), hope Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, hope Clemson or Notre Dame loses, and hope to prevail with the committee. A lot of things would have to fall into place for Baylor to prevail, but the Bears are by no means out of it. If they finish 11-1, they would very much be in the running against a 1-loss ACC champ or a 2-loss SEC, Big Ten, or Pac-12 champ, and they would presumably prevail over any non-conference-champion aside from a 1-loss Notre Dame.
(10-1) Oklahoma State (#11 in the A&H Rankings): Win at home against Oklahoma, hope TCU or Texas beats Baylor, hope Clemson or Notre Dame loses, and hope to prevail with the committee. Like Baylor, the Cowboys would be in the running against a 1-loss ACC champ or a 2-loss SEC, Big Ten, or Pac-12 champ.
(9-2) Stanford (#12 in the A&H Rankings): Win at home against Notre Dame, beat USC (#26 in the A&H Rankings) or UCLA (#21 in the A&H Rankings) in the Pac-12 Championship Game, hope either Clemson or Oklahoma loses, and hope the committee picks the 2-loss Pac-12 champs (likely to join the SEC and Big Ten champs) over such possibilities as a 1-loss Baylor, Oklahoma State, ACC champ, or Ohio State (although the Buckeyes would prevail if they are the Big Ten champs)—none of which would have played anywhere near Stanford’s schedule. In addition, Stanford would be competitive against a 2-loss SEC or Big Ten champion. So the Cardinal—and hence the Pac-12—still has a shot.
(9-2) Michigan (#13 in the A&H Rankings): Win at home against Ohio State, have Penn State beat Michigan State, beat Iowa to win the Big Ten title, hope either Clemson, Notre Dame, or Oklahoma loses, and hope to prevail over such possibilities as a 1-loss Baylor, Oklahoma State, or ACC champ, or a 2-loss Stanford or SEC champ.
(10-1) North Carolina (#19 in the A&H Rankings): Win at North Carolina State (#62 in the A&H Rankings), beat Clemson to win the ACC title, hope either Notre Dame or Oklahoma loses, and hope to prevail over such possibilities as a 1-loss Baylor, Oklahoma State, or Ohio State (if the Buckeyes aren’t the Big Ten champs), or a 2-loss Pac-12, Big Ten, or SEC champ. For North Carolina to prevail, however, the committee would have to overlook (A) that the Tar Heels’ best win before beating Clemson (in this scenario) will have been at Pitt (#31 in the A&H Rankings), and (B) that the Tar Heels lost to a (3-8) South Carolina team (#85 in the A&H Rankings) that lost on Saturday to the Citadel.
Jeffrey H. Anderson, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, is co-creator of the Anderson & Hester Rankings, which were part of the BCS throughout its entire 16-year run and are now published by the Dallas Morning News.
