Parsing the Polls: How Strong Is Trump’s lead in Iowa?

Will that hold?

There are lots of reasons to think Trump’s lead won’t hold. First, is his total lack of organization. Most of his precinct captains —the people supposed to bring his supporters out to the caucuses — have never attended a caucus before. Cruz’s organizational advantage likely gives him a few points.

In Monmouth’s poll, Cruz leads Trump 28-23 percent among regular caucus-goers. Trump’s lead relies on people who have never before shown up to vote.

Here’s something many readers may not know about polls: Lots of modeling (that is, informed guesswork) goes into predicting the size and makeup of the electorate. If pollsters are incorrect in their turnout models, their percentages will not be accurate. The polls giving Trump first place are all based on a prediction of record-high turnout at the caucuses.

If the turnout isn’t as high — if the weather keeps voters home, or if Trump’s poor organization just fizzles — Trump’s 30-33 percent is way too high.

But can organization and turnout get Cruz seven or eight points? That’s a tall order.

Still, the polls show other glimmers of hope for Cruz and third-place Marco Rubio.

PPP had this interesting finding: About 13 percent of the electorate is weakly attached to a minor candidate, and open to changing candidates. With this cadre of voters, Rubio is by far the top second choice.

Another note on these Iowa polls: Finally, Rubio has established himself firmly in the top tier. Earlier this month, he occasionally polled in the single digits. Often, he was fourth or fifth place in Iowa. Now the Iowa polls paint a clear picture of a top three: Trump, Cruz and Rubio. That’s not where Rubio hoped a year ago he would be, but it’s better than he feared a few months ago.

Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.