HAPPENING TODAY: It’s Members’ Day in the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, which means lawmakers will get a chance to pitch their colleagues on what they think should be included in the fiscal 2018 appropriations bill. A committee staffer said there was so much interest among members wanting to speak that the panel will hold two sessions — one at 9:30 a.m. and one at 1 p.m. Requests made during the meetings can run the gamut from big picture items to requests for specific base priorities in a lawmaker’s home district.
APPROPS ADVANCES: Last night, the House overwhelmingly passed the fiscal 2017 defense appropriations bill, similar to the spending bill that passed the House last summer. But Democrats in the Senate are once again threatening to block the defense funding bill if Republican leaders don’t start moving non-defense spending bills forward. Kurt Couchman, vice president of public policy over at Defense Priorities has a thoughtful, nuanced analysis of what is and is not included in the bill. I don’t say this a lot about budget reviews, but this one published in the National Review is worth a read even if you are not a budget wonk.
MARINES ARRIVE IN SYRIA: One sign the day of reckoning is drawing closer for the Islamic State’s forces holding their self-proclaimed capital in Syria comes with the arrival of U.S. Marines and their high-tech artillery. The Marines are from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit coming in from ships off the coast, and they’ll be bringing their M777 lightweight howitzers. The deployment, first reported by the Washington Post, is designed to provide more combat firepower to Syrian Kurdish and Arab fighters closing in on Raqqa, and is a mirror of what the U.S. did in Iraq to help Iraqi forces in the siege of Mosul. In recent weeks, U.S. commanders have said the plan to hasten the defeat of ISIS would require more U.S. troops, but that they would be used in a support role, not on the front lines. The Post reported that the deployment has been planned for a while and wasn’t the result of a new directive by the Trump administration.
A senior U.S. defense official, speaking on background in order to discuss intelligence yesterday, said ISIS leaders in Raqqa seem to know their hold on the city is tenuous in the face of the oncoming offensive, and are making plans to fight on from parts of southern Syria. “I also believe that some of the leadership has probably left Raqqa. I think there are indications on the part of Daesh [ISIS] that it may not be tenable as a long-term capital. Some have probably already fled or will leave shortly after the assault on the city begins.” The official gave no timeline for the beginning of the offensive to liberate Raqqa, but predicted within six months major population centers in Iraq and Syria would be cleared of ISIS while the fight continues elsewhere. “I don’t think they have given up on their vision of a caliphate yet,” the official said. “I think they still believe they can function and are making plans to continue to function as a pseudo state centered in the Euphrates River valley.”
ISIS “FRACTURED, CONFUSED” Yesterday’s background briefing provided fresh estimates of the Islamic State’s force levels. Although the U.S. does not have a firm number it can be entirely confident in, the current guesstimates are that ISIS has only about half as many fighters as it did at its peak and has lost 65 percent of the territory it once controlled. The senior defense official said it’s believed ISIS is down to about 15,000 fighters total, with about 2,500 left in Mosul, and 3,000 to 4,000 in Raqqa. But those forces are largely cut off from resupply and outside reinforcements, and have seen many of their battlefield commanders killed by U.S. strikes. “We found that taking out those mid-level leaders was very effective in limiting their ability to mount a coherent defense, to conduct synchronized or coordinated counter attacks,” the briefer said. “I think they are fractured and confused at times.”
RESERVE FORCE: The U.S. is also considering sending up to 1,000 additional troops to Kuwait to give commanders a “reserve” force they can draw on as needed, without having to ask the president to approve an increase in force levels, according to Reuters. The report says the idea is “to provide U.S. commanders on the ground greater flexibility to quickly respond to unforeseen opportunities and challenges on the battlefield.” The report included this caveat: “It was unclear whether the proposal had the support of U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who could opt to use other tools to give commanders more agility.”
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Jacqueline Klimas (@jacqklimas) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll be sure to add you to our list.
Want to learn more about Daily on Defense? See our introductory video here.
NO DEAL: The U.S. was quick to reject a Chinese proposal that would have had North Korea agree to suspend its nuclear and missile programs in return for the U.S. and South Korea ending its annual military exercises that Pyongyang sees as a practice for an invasion to topple the regime of Kim Jong Un. “We don’t see it as a viable deal,” said Mark Toner, acting State Department spokesman. “It’s not a fair trade for us to suspend our defense-oriented exercises based in large part, well, fully, on the threat that North Korea poses to the peninsula.” China proposed the idea yesterday as a first step to get negotiations underway for a long term agreement. But even before the U.S. rejected the proposal, there was no sign that North Korea’s leader, who sees nuclear weapons as the only way to preserve his hold on power, would agree or honor any pledge to suspend its programs.
THE BEST DEFENSE: Meanwhile Japan is considering developing new weapons systems to give it a first-strike option against North Korea’s nuclear program, according to Japanese lawmakers. “It is time we acquired the capability,” said Hiroshi Imazu, a legislator who helps set security policy for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s political party, according to Reuters. “I don’t know whether that would be with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles or even the F-35, but without a deterrence North Korea will see us as weak.”
Such an armament would represent the boldest expansion of Japanese offensive capabilities since World War II, in a country that has created constitutional restrictions on military development. But North Korea’s increasing pattern of aggression in the region has neighbors looking for new ways to counteract the dictatorship.
‘HEADS SHOULD ROLL’: Rep. Jackie Speier, D-Calif., called on Mattis during a speech on the House floor to kick out the Marines who were involved in the recent social media scandal where service members posted nude photos of female military members online. “I call on you to hold your leadership accountable for these failures, to establish a culture of dramatic change, and that means heads should roll,” Speier said.
Speier seemed either unaware or unconcerned about the legal principle of “unlawful command influence,” which bars senior military officers from making statements that presume the guilt of those accused under the Uniform Code of Military Justice. Mattis and senior Marine leaders must be careful in condemning the repugnant activity not to indicate how they think the legal cases should turn out. The Marines learned this the hard way in 2012, when then-Commandant Gen. James Amos casually remarked in a speech that he believed 80 percent of sexual assault claims were legitimate. That led to a flood of defense claims of unlawful command influence, vastly complicating more than five dozen pending cases.
Nevertheless, concern over the scandal is spreading through Congress on both sides of the aisle and both ends of Capitol Hill. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand sent a letter to Sen. John McCain and Sen. Jack Reed last night asking them to hold a hearing on the issue in the Senate Armed Services Committee. And House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry, said Gen. Robert Neller, the commandant of the Marine Corps, is set to give a closed briefing to his committee next week. Thornberry, mindful of the legal restrictions as to what Neller can say, said, “I have no doubt the Marine Corps is taking this very seriously.”
THE CNO WEIGHS IN: As an example of how careful senior leaders need to be, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson posted a statement on the Navylive blog that makes no direct mention of the distribution of nude photos via social media, instead denouncing “toxic behaviors” such as alcohol abuse, sexual harassment and assault, hazing, and other violence, which he said “eat away” at team cohesion and erode trust. “Toxic behaviors cause us to hesitate, to second guess, to look over our shoulders instead of moving together at full speed. Toxic behaviors make us weaker; they cede advantage to the enemy. Toxic behaviors are NOT for winners, they are for losers. They have no place in our Navy,” Richardson wrote.
AGING NUKES: The nation’s nuclear arsenal isn’t going to last forever. That was the message some of the military’s top generals brought to the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday, where they emphasized the pressing need to modernize and recapitalize all three legs of the triad. “These systems will not remain viable forever,” Gen. Paul Selva, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said.
Some stark stats: The Minuteman III missiles, which were built in the 1970s, are set to be retired in 2030. They were initially designed to have only a 10-year service life. The Navy faces a similar problem, according to Adm. Bill Moran, the service’s vice chief. Its Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines will be 42 years old when they retire, but were only supposed to last 30 years. When asked about the risk of further extending the life of the boomers, Moran said “we can’t go beyond 42.”
RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR GAMESMANSHIP: At that House hearing on nuclear deterrence, Selva said Russia is clearly in violation of the “spirit and intent” of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, with its deployment of a land-based cruise missile that could carry nuclear warheads. Selva says the U.S. has confronted the Russians by way of a bilateral consultation committee that’s part of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. “The system itself presents a risk to most of our facilities in Europe,” Selva said. “And we believe that the Russians have deliberately deployed it in order to pose a threat to NATO and to facilities within the NATO area of responsibility.”
Selva said NATO has an effective deterrent in the form “nonstrategic nuclear weapons,” (lower-yield tactical nukes) that can be delivered from dual capable aircraft (F-15s, F-35s). “Those aircraft are distributed in a very deliberate readiness process between U.S. forces and our NATO allies. And we believe that that capability poses a significant risk to Russia,” Selva said. “And therefore it helps deter Russia from employing nuclear weapons on the European continent.”
MOSCOW ON THE HUNTSMAN: Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman has been offered the Russian ambassador job by the Trump administration and is likely to accept the post, according to Politico. Huntsman, who most recently served as U.S. ambassador to China under former President Obama, is submitting paperwork and will formally accept the position.
Huntsman’s selection comes at a critical time for relations between the two countries and as the FBI and Congress continue investigations into attempts by Russian President Vladimir Putin to help nudge the election in Trump’s favor.
RUSSIA’S TRACKS: The lead Democratic proponent of creating an independent commission to investigate Russian interference in internal U.S. affairs sought traction Wednesday by launching a website dedicated to showing Moscow’s fingerprints on campaign season hacks and ties to Trump and his inner circle, Nicole Duran writes. “Russia is not our friend,” said Rep. Eric Swalwell. “They attacked our democracy. Yet, President Trump resists this finding, even though every day we continue to hear more about his team’s ties with Russia.”
The site has five main sections: Russia: not our friend; Russia: Trump and his team’s ties; Russia: attack on our democracy; Russia: influencing Trump and his team; and now what?
LANGLEY RESPONDS: The CIA refused on Wednesday to confirm the authenticity of WikiLeaks’ “Vault7” document dump that claims to offer a look into the agency’s secret hacking program, but did warn that the American public should be “deeply troubled” by the disclosures, Daniel Chaitin writes. In a statement being circulated to news outlets, a CIA spokesperson said, “We have no comment on the purported intelligence documents released by WikiLeaks or on the status of any investigation into the source of the documents.”
AH, AH, AH. DON’T CLICK THAT SITE: DoD and other federal employees were warned yesterday that the documents posted by WikiLeaks, while available to the public, remain classified, and any access of them by federal workers on government computers is unlawful. That means Pentagon employees are not supposed to view or download any of the documents, even if they are on news sites they normally frequent as part of their job. That presents a particular problem for journalists at Voice of America, who are government employees, but also have a mission to report independently of government influence. The Washington Post reports the VOA has found a workaround that allows it to report the story, without doing anything illegal.
COMEY NOT GOING ANYWHERE: FBI Director James Comey says don’t expect him to be leaving his job anytime soon. Yesterday, Comey signaled he intends to serve his full 10-year term, which began in 2013, Daniel Chaitin writes. “You’re stuck with me for another six and a half years,” Comey told an audience at the beginning of a speech to a cybersecurity conference in Boston.
THE RUNDOWN
Washington Post: U.S. Moves To Resume Sales Of Weapons To Saudi Arabia
Defense News: B-21 Raider covertly completes preliminary design review
Defense News: Democrats renew attack on new nuclear cruise missile
Wall Street Journal: North Korea Tried To Sell Nuclear-Weapon Material Last Year
Politico: Bipartisan bloc blasts White House on Coast Guard cuts
Reuters: China Developing Stealth Drones To Evade Anti-Aircraft Missiles
Defense News: German Military To Buy U.S. Navy’s Triton Drones
Defense One: The Coming Fall of Mosul
The Cipher Brief: Vying for Power in Iran
Reuters: Death Toll From Kabul Hospital Attack Rises To 49
UPI: U.S. Naval Research Lab develops light, transparent armor
Calendar
THURSDAY | MARCH 9
9:30 a.m. Hart 216. Gens. Joseph Votel and Thomas Waldhauser, the leaders of U.S. Central Command and Africa Command, respectively, testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee. armed-services.senate.gov
9:30 a.m. Capitol H-140. The House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee holds its Members’ Day, with one session in the morning and a second at 1 p.m. appropriations.house.gov
11 a.m. Dirksen 419. Think tank experts testify about challenges facing the U.S. in Yemen. foreign.senate.gov
2:00 p.m. Hart 219. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence holds a closed hearing. intelligence.senate.gov
2:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts a launch event for the new book, NATO and the North Atlantic: Revitalizing Collective Defense. csis.org
3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Three members of the Defense Science Board testify on nuclear deterrence. armedservices.house.gov
FRIDAY | MARCH 10
9 a.m. Rayburn 2118. The House Armed Services Committee hosts a hearing about sequestration’s impact on Marine Corps readiness. armedservices.house.gov
TUESDAY | MARCH 14
11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Sharon Weinberger of the Woodrow Wilson Institute discusses her new book on DARPA, The Imagineers of War. wilsoncenter.org
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 15
9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. A panel discusses the defense budget and emergency war spending. aei.org
3:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. A panel of experts testifies on all arms warfare in the 21st century. armed-services.senate.gov
THURSDAY | MARCH 16
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Rep. Seth Moulton and Rep. Brad Wenstrup talk about America’s place in the world and foreign policy strategy. atlanticcouncil.org
