The Left can read the polls as well as we can:
The big polling news today, of course, are the tracking polls that show a tie (Rasmussen) and a two-point lead for McCain (Gallup). That is the worst showing for Obama in three months, and also the first time in three months that McCain has a net lead in the tracking polls. It should be noted that this does not mean McCain is ahead nationally, as there are other polls and the tracking polls have consistently skewed toward McCain. Also, it should be noted that Obama continues to hold a lead at the state polling level. However, this is still pretty bad news. Although the tracking polls have virtually no interviews conducted after Michelle Obama’s speech, they were both entirely conducted after the Biden announcement. This means no Biden bump, which doesn’t really surprise me. Biden just isn’t the sort of politician who is going to win votes right away. The hope is that he can win them as the campaign goes on, with a strong debate, as tough attack dog, and just as a generally good surrogate. I admit that I have a bad feeling about this. So far, the lack of bounce is eerily similar to 2004, when we didn’t get a bounce out of the convention. I am not entirely sure what is going wrong, as I have actually generally liked what the Obama campaign has done over the past week. Conventions tend to put presidential campaigns where they should “naturally” be, and right now I am wondering if that means a toss-up or even a slight McCain lead. Maybe the last three months were just a mirage, and it was the March through May period that was normal. The next two weeks will let us know.
The Democrats will undoubtedly have a bounce by the time they leave Denver. If history is any guide, Obama ought to have a lead of up to 10 points by Sunday. However, it’s become clear to all that Obama is dramatically underperforming where the Democratic candidate should be right now.
