Pace is a funny thing.
In 2000, I lost 65 pounds in about 4 months. I was on pace to completely disappear before the All-Star Break in 2001. Of course, I was unable to maintain that pace.
Some Nats fans can’t discuss the team without saying something like “The club’s on pace to lose 110 games É” or some such. As far as pace goes, that might be true. However, after the first two series of the year, they were on pace to lose all 162. So, if their pace now is only 110 losses, they’ve somehow picked up 52 wins along the way.
There are several areas in the country that have extremely knowledgeable baseball fans. I’m not sure the mid-Atlantic is one of them. Oh sure, there are plenty of folks who love the game, but many are hung up on things that you’d think they’d be able to see past — like this whole pace thing.
Take a pitcher’s win-loss record, for instance. So many fans I speak with will cite a W-L record as having real meaning in determining his effectiveness. How much impact does a pitcher have on the number of runs his team will score for him during any given start or what a bullpen does? We’ve all seen pitchers pitch their hearts out, only to be saddled with a loss or no-decision. Where’s the justice for that?
If you looked at the standings this week in the major leagues, you’d see the Nationals at 10 games under .500, and the Indians and Orioles 7 games under, and Oakland 6 under. Is there really that much difference in those records? The big difference is that the Nats — and Orioles, really — are expected to lose, and the other teams are not. But based on pace, the A’s — considered a legitimate contender in the AL West — should lose at least 90 games. Anybody willing to go to Vegas and bet on that?
Pace is a funny thing. It’s rarely telling of much, if any kind of concrete trend. It’s entirely possible that the Nationals will lose 100 games, though if you subscribe to pace, they’ll out-hit and outscore two-thirds of the other teams in the National League.
So, what’s it going to be? An offense like that should be very entertaining, should it not?
How about this: Let the season play out É and forget about pace.
Phil Wood is a contributor to
Nats Xtra on MASN. Contact him at
[email protected].
