The disturbing allegations of sexual misconduct leveled against failed Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore created a unique set of circumstances in Alabama’s special election on Tuesday. Moore divided Republicans in the state, driving enthusiasm among some supporters who saw him as the victim of an establishment plot and repelling other GOP voters who believed the allegations were true.
The simple fact is Alabama’s race was different than most will be in 2018, making it difficult to project the results onto other elections (though that doesn’t mean certain patterns don’t raise interesting questions).
An exit poll question that asked voters to say “[i]n deciding your vote for U.S. Senate today, were the allegations of sexual misconduct against Roy Moore” either “not a factor at all,” “a minor factor,” “one of several important factors,” or “the single most important factor,” sheds light on how those allegations actually impacted for whom people pulled the lever.
Only 7 percent of voters said it was the single most important factor. About 34 percent said it was one of several important factors, 19 percent said a minor factor, and 35 percent said it wasn’t a factor at all. Those numbers seem lower than expected, but the question may have been better posed to people who stayed home rather than vote for either Jones or Moore.
About 76 percent of Moore voters said the allegations weren’t a factor at all compared to 23 percent of Jones voters. That’s in line with the theory that a surge in Democratic turnout is responsible for Moore’s loss, since a more Democratic electorate would obviously include more people who vote for the party on an ideological basis, though many may not have bothered voting at all on Tuesday if Moore weren’t facing allegations of misconduct.
Media observers spent most of the weeks leading up to Tuesday discussing the allegations, even casting the election as a referendum on them, so it’s still somewhat interesting that less than 10 percent of voters saw those allegations as the single most important factor in deciding their vote.
In assessing the veracity of the allegations against Moore, 52 percent of voters said they were “definitely or probably true,” including 89 percent of Jones voters, while 43 percent said they were “definitely or probably false,” including 94 percent of Moore voters. Interestingly, 8 percent of Moore voters said they believed the allegations were definitely or probably true.
A look at the RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows support for Jones spiked almost immediately after the initial Washington Post story on allegations against Moore broke in early November. So even if those allegations weren’t ultimately the single most important factor for most voters, it’s clear they shaped the last month of the race dramatically.
