GIVE SADDAM HUSSEIN CREDIT. He learned from the first Gulf War that it makes no sense to go toe-to-toe with U.S. forces in conventional combat. In the second Gulf War, he has adopted a smarter strategy of retreating into urban areas and harassing U.S. supply lines with irregular forces. Saddam’s greatest success is simply maintaining control of his regime. The mass defections and uprisings predicted by many have not materialized. This is not, as some claim, because of “nationalist” sentiment. It is because the Baathist infrastructure of terror remains securely implanted and ordinary Iraqis are not yet confident enough of U.S. victory to switch sides. They do not want a repeat of 1991, when the United States encouraged them to rise up and then stood by as they were slaughtered.
U.S. forces were caught off-guard by the ferocity of the resistance from the regime’s loyalists. The administration, from the president down, unwisely boosted expectations of an easy victory by hyping the “shock and awe” bombing campaign and by publicly speculating about a meltdown of resistance. This might have happened if Saddam had died on day one; but apparently he did not–and so we now have a real war on our hands.
