There’s chatter in Virginia blog-land that George Allen’s allies in the state’s Republican Party are pushing for a primary to choose the GOP Senate nominee in 2012 over a convention. The conventional wisdom indicates that a primary would favor Allen over all comers. But here’s how the conventional wisdom could be dead wrong.
Establishment GOP candidates like Rep. Mike Castle in Delaware, Sen. Lisa Murkowski in Alaska and former Colorado Lt. Gov. Jane Norton were all upset in primaries by candidates who successfully captured the outsider mantle (and the support of local and national tea party groups). While each of those upstarts ultimately failed in the general election, they nonetheless were able to overcome the establishment party apparatus and capture their respective state’s nominations.
Or consider winners who bucked the establishment: candidates like Marco Rubio and Rand Paul. In those cases, the primary contest didn’t offer their establishment-backed opponents any special advantage.
But Allen may be looking at local history. A GOP nominating convention in 2008 saw Del. Bob Marshall come within a whisker of beating the establishment pick, former Gov. Jim Gilmore. It was also in that same convention that former Del. Jeff Frederick was chosen to lead the state party (he was later drummed out of the position by party big-wigs and elected officials on charges that his personal dealings were shady, and his tone too strident).
Allen may fear that a convention could bring out the troops for a dark horse challenger — be it Marshall, Prince William Supervisor Corey Stewart or someone off the radar right now. And as a former incumbent who lost (or gave away, depending upon your partisan stripes) the election to Jim Webb in 2006, Allen may believe the path of least resistance to the coronation is to force any potential challenger to run a statewide campaign.
But think about it for a moment: folks who attend a convention are committed. The convention itself is just an excuse to get together, wear a few buttons and clap on cue. In a statewide primary, people have to have a reason to go out and vote for you. So you run the TV and radio ads, send the direct mail pieces, make the campaign stops, all in hopes of motivating people to head to the polls (typically in June) and pull the lever for you.
The motivated will show up, just as they would for a convention. But then there’s the wild card: what if one of those thick-headed challengers who doesn’t have the money to pepper the media with his or her face and talking points manages to capture the public mood on a specific issue. That under-funded, shoe leather challenger suddenly becomes the face of a movement…and those newly-motivated people head out to the polls. The result is an upset, leaving George Allen — yesterday’s candidate — wondering how it all went so wrong when it seemed like such a sure thing.
Go ask Mike Castle how it feels. Or Charlie Crist. Their experiences, and those of their string-pullers in the party, could tell Allen to be very, very careful what he wishes for.
