Have Jeb Bush and Donald Trump become top adversaries for “establishment” Republican support?
The former Florida governor would gain more supporters from Donald Trump’s exit than if any other candidate quit the 2016 presidential race, according to a new national poll.
Bush’s newfound strategy of attacking Trump may prove shrewd in light of what McLaughlin and Associates’ new survey discovered: Trump’s demise could mean a Bush bump.
“Governor Bush’s best hope to gain second-choice votes, 44 percent, comes from Trump; only 14 percent come from Kasich, 11 percent from Christie and 11 percent from Cruz,” wrote John and Jim McLaughlin for National Review Online.
Overall, the survey found that the two candidates poised to benefit most from a Trump departure are Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Bush, but the McLaughlin and Associates’ data suggests Bush’s onslaught “mainly benefits Ted Cruz.”
Bush’s strategy of attacking Trump stands in stark contrast to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has gone after Florida Sen. Marco Rubio on the campaign trail. But the McLaughlin survey suggests a majority, 55 percent, of all second-choice votes available to Christie presently belong to Trump. Just 20 percent of respondents who said Christie was their second choice favor Rubio.
The survey also found that a Rubio loss would assist Cruz most, and Cruz’s defeat would serve Rubio better than any other candidate.
But the poll also suggests that undecided voters — who made up six percent of those surveyed — appear poised to break for Trump. Among respondents who said they were undecided, 57 percent of likely Republican voters say their second choice is Trump.
Among all Republican primary voters surveyed, Trump leads at 36 percentage points, followed by Cruz at 17 percent, Rubio at 11 percent, Ben Carson at 9 percent, and Bush at 6 percent.
McLaughlin and Associates surveyed 421 people “who would vote in the Republican primary,” including 322 Republicans and 98 independents. The poll was conducted from Jan. 14-18.
