Florida Sen. Marco Rubio was the next Great Hope for Republicans once former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush began flailing. Yet despite constant claims that he would be the nominee, Rubio’s presidential campaign never gained the momentum (Marcomentum) that was expected.
So his supporters are left wondering what will happen to him after this. D.C. insiders I’ve spoken to say his career is done if he drops out. Rubio supporters I’ve spoken to bring up Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan as examples that a loss doesn’t mean the end of a career.
One problem with Lincoln/Reagan comparisons, however, is that the Internet wasn’t around back then and the media as we know it today didn’t have the same reach back then.
A comeback after a failed presidential campaign won’t be easy. Clearly, there are examples of those who did it. California Gov. Jerry Brown made multiple failed presidential runs, then took some years off and restarted his political career. He has been governor of California since 2011. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney failed to win the GOP nomination in 2008 but came back to win it in 2012 (obviously he lost the general election). Most impressively, Richard Nixon narrowly lost the 1960 presidential election and then lost the 1962 election for goverrnor of California. Nixon came back to be elected president in 1968 and win re-election in 1972.
So a comeback is possible. The question is: What should Rubio do after he drops out?
I guess the first question has to do with timing: When should he drop out? As my colleague Phil Klein points out, Rubio needs 78 percent of all outstanding delegates in order to secure the nomination. That is implausible at this point, considering Donald Trump has won 42 percent of allocated delegates and shows no signs of slowing down.
If he drops out before March 15 (before Florida’s winner-take-all primary), Rubio can save himself the possible embarrassment of losing his own state. He also gives Texas Sen. Ted Cruz a chance to take away more delegates from Trump. Likely, not all Rubio supporters will go to Cruz (or Ohio Gov. John Kasich). Some will indeed go to Trump, which could help the business mogul.
If Rubio loses Florida and drops out after March 15 (which is really his put-up-or-shut-up moment), he damages his credibility as a future candidate (he couldn’t even win his own state!). Of course, he could win Florida, but those 99 delegates would still put him more than 100 delegates below Cruz, and he’s not poised to win many delegates in the other March 15 primary states.
The question then becomes: What does Rubio do after dropping out? He has already given up his Senate seat. Does he find a way to continue in politics, go into lobbying or retire? Given what we know about his finances I’m not sure retiring is the best choice (but I’m a millennial, I’m in no position to give financial advice). If he decides to continue in politics, does he still want to be president some day?
If the answer to the last question is “yes,” he has a couple options. Make a deal with Cruz for the VP slot or find something else to run for.
As for running as Cruz’s VP (which would require Cruz accepting or requesting that idea, obviously), it would be a good unifying tactic against Trump. If Rubio is selected as Cruz’s VP nominee, and Cruz wins the presidency, then Rubio could run for president in eight years with executive experience — something he is lacking now.
Cruz might do better, though, if he picks a woman as his running mate, such as New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley or his newest endorser, Carly Fiorina (each have their own liabilities, of course).
Another option for Rubio is to find another office to run for. In 2018, the governorship and other Senate seat will be up in Florida. He could run for the Senate again, but that seems unlikely given Rubio’s ambition. The governorship is a better bet.
It would be tough for Rubio, certainly, after a failed presidential bid, but it could be done. And if he were to become governor of Florida, he could pull the dick move of abandoning the state and running for president in 2020 (if Clinton wins in 2016), or running for re-election in 2022, and waiting to run for president again in 2024 (then he’ll only be abandoning his state after six years, instead of two). Again, this would give him the executive experience he’s currently lacking, and which has been exploited by his rivals.
I think if Rubio drops out, spends the next year or so building a campaign and support, he could have a chance at Florida’s governorship in 2018 (though current Gov. Rick Scott may leave the state hungry for someone other than a Republican by then). Other than that or a selection as Cruz’s VP, his career in politics might be over.
Time to hit the lecture circuit or go the lobbying route. At least then he’ll be able to pay off his credit cards and mortgages.
Ashe Schow is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
