Young people, a traditionally unreliable voting bloc, appear to be turning out to cast their election ballots in greater numbers than in the past.
But political observers are cautioning more casual spectators not to read too much into young people’s mail-in ballot requests and returns, as well as early in-person participation, until polls close.
Out of the more than 100 million ballots already cast before Tuesday’s elections, 10 million of them were by voters under the age of 30, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.
And election officials in battleground states, such as Texas and Michigan, have reported record figures regarding young people, who tend to lean Democratic. In Texas, for instance, more than 1.3 million voters under the age of 30 have cast their ballots in a state with 38 electoral votes and a median age of 34.
That initial turnout data reflects Quinnipiac University’s national polling that tracks motivation between October 2016 and October 2020. Last month, 55% of voters aged between 18 and 34 were more motivated to take part in the election, 9% were less motivated, and 33% felt the same way. Last cycle, 46% were more motivated, 28% were less motivated, and 26% felt the same.
Marquette Law School Poll director Charles Franklin explained higher turnout was anticipated “across the board” this year and that participation rates increase from the age of 18 until a person reaches their 50s and 60s.
“There are years when the younger groups are more active: 2004 was an example in which the turnout among 18- to 29-year-olds rose noticeably from 2000, though it remained below that of those in their 30s or older,” he said.
But Northeastern University political science professor Costas Panagopoulos tried to manage expectations, in part because of the coronavirus pandemic. Some students, who are typically targeted by both parties, weren’t all learning on campus, logging onto classes online to mitigate the spread of COVID-19.
“They will likely still vote at lower rates compared to older Americans, but young voters may vote at higher rates in 2020 than they have in the past,” he said.
Panagopoulos added, “Votes cast by young voters can be consequential, especially in tight races in battleground states. In 2016, young voters favored Hillary Clinton by a wide margin, nearly 2 to 1, and polls suggest they favor Biden strongly as well.”
Tom Cochran, a partner at public affairs firm 720 Strategies and a former Obama White House new media technologies director, agreed that young people could boost Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden despite a few vocal members of the cohort preferring the more liberal politics of his former White House rival Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
“I don’t think the election hinges on this group’s turnout. I think this may be the exclamation point needed for a resounding Biden victory and a repudiation of four chaotic years,” he said.
Young voter trends appear to be running parallel with polling that signaled to President Trump’s team over the summer that the sitting president was struggling with seniors.
Voters older than 65 are generally more dependable, and the age bracket has been disproportionately affected by Trump’s pandemic response, specifically in the swing state of Florida, another must-win for the incumbent.
