Why would the Trump campaign allow Ted Cruz to speak without pledging to endorse beforehand?
It’s simple. Either way, Donald Trump wins. If Cruz endorses, Trump secures the base. If Cruz makes the speech all about himself and stiffs Trump, Trump wins over people who dislike Cruz.
Want to know which group is bigger?
According to the last poll in the RealClearPolitics average, twice as many voters have an unfavorable view of Cruz than have a favorable view of him — 58 percent to 29 percent. Among millennials and moderates, those numbers are even higher. If you’re Trump, wouldn’t you choose the 58 percent, especially when the vast majority of the 29 percent is already voting for you?
Cruz’s non-endorsement of Trump sends a message to these 58 percent: Trump is independent of Cruz’s flat-earth politics.
In many ways, Cruz embodies much of what millennials can’t stand about the Republican Party: pointlessly disagreeable, preachy, absolutist, too connected to Wall Street, and disconnected from real-world problems.
While millennial favorability of Trump has been very, very low, the fact that Cruz the curmudgeon hates Trump might make some millennials take a second look. Trump’s open views on social issues and his non-ideological approach to policy provide a stark contrast to Cruz.
And clearly, this contrast was one Trump wanted to exhibit on national television.
In some ways, Trump allowing Cruz to diss him was the beginning of his pivot to the general election. He wanted to show moderates, millennials, and anti-Hillary Democrats that he isn’t tied to polarizing GOP figures.
One has to wonder: Does Trump wish Jeb Bush would have delivered a convention speech too?
From a polling perspective, Trump is smart to distance himself from the Bushes and from Cruz. It goes to show that GOP disunity can be an advantage for Trump if it dis-unites him from the party’s most unpopular policies and politicians.
