History teaches us that if you want your coup d’etat to be successful, you must seize the initiative and act with relentless speed.
Thus far at least, those Conservative Party plotters seeking to remove Prime Minister Theresa May are not meeting that criterion. In fact, they are offering a quite amazing example of how to botch a coup attempt.
Believing that May’s Brexit deal with the European Union would betray the repatriation-of-powers sentiment that led to the Brexit vote in the 2016 referendum, these so-called “hard Brexit” parliamentarians want May replaced with a more sympathetic leader. Their cause is clear and their passion longstanding.
Their tactics, intelligence gathering, and strategy are far less auspicious.
The coup began credibly with a public pronouncement from ardent hard Brexiteer and eloquent parliamentarian, Jacob Rees-Mogg, who declared that the party needed new leadership to ensure that May’s Brexit agreement with the EU was overturned. The necessary next step was the delivery of 48 signatures, 15 percent of Conservative Party MPs, to the 1922 Committee, which has the power to call a leadership confidence vote.
Apparently, assuming that they would easily reach the 48-signature threshold, the coup plotters went on the BBC and other British TV news channels to offer pronouncements of how they would meet the margin for a leadership challenge, win that challenge, and then achieve a better Brexit.
It hasn’t happened.
Although a number of ministers have resigned from May’s government in protest at her plans, it’s not clear how many have sought to remove her from office. Other top officials have stood behind her. Their number includes the prominent Environment Secretary Michael Gove, an erstwhile hard Brexiteer, who on Friday pledged his support to the prime minister. All of this leaves the coup plotters out on a rather embarrassing limb.
One of the key plotters, Steve Baker, had earlier declared on Friday that he had 48 letters in favor of a leadership challenge. But then things changed. The Telegraph’s political reporter, Harry Yorke, summed it up best:
Steve Baker is now in full back-track mode. This morning he said he had 48 letters, at midday he said they were close, and now…he reckons the ERG hit the magic number next week. That doesn’t sound like a coup to me.
— Harry Yorke (@HarryYorke1) November 16, 2018
The ERG is the organizing body for the hard Brexiteers. Next up, columnist Dan Hodges added a bit of British humor to the analysis:
Also worth pointing out the people who can’t currently coordinate the submission of 48 letters are the same people who are demanding to be put in charge of the most complex international negotiation in UK political history.
— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) November 16, 2018
The key factor here is that the coup attempt appears to have stuttered to an abrupt halt. As momentum shifts in favor of May, some letters against her are likely to be withdrawn. So why the failure?
As I noted on Thursday, there is no obvious candidate who might unify the Conservative Party aside from May. Indeed, May’s solemn leadership over the past few days has actually boosted her standing with many MPs who might otherwise oppose her.
Ultimately, however, May remains far from secure. Her Brexit deal seems unlikely to win a parliamentary majority, and if she takes it to the House of Commons and loses, May will almost certainly have to resign. But for my two cents, I believe that May’s deal is the best that Britain can expect to get. For that reason, I believe President Trump should engage with the EU and with London to help both sides reach a more mutually beneficial agreement.
