On Monday, British Prime Minister Theresa May blamed Russia for the nerve agent attack on Sergei Skripal.
Disclosing that the nerve agent employed against Skripal was from a distinct Russian research strand, May decried an “unlawful use of force by the Russian state against the United Kingdom.”
A former Russian intelligence officer who was recruited as a British agent in the 1990s, Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, were attacked as they visited a British town center on March 4th. Both remain hospitalized in critical condition. A police officer who fell ill after attending to them is in stable condition.
But why did Theresa May wait until today to blame Russia? For two reasons. First off, the British government needed to liaise with its allies in relation to any intelligence evidence indicating Kremlin’s culpability. By waiting a week, the British also gave themselves the opportunity to provoke Russian officials into phone and email conversations that bring to light new intelligence. This is useful because the Russians like to gloat when they think they’re not being monitored.
What’s also relevant here is that while Britain’s Government Communications Headquarters, or GCHQ, signals intelligence service has its own high-grade collection capabilities targeting Russian interests, it benefits from the cumulative effect of the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance.
The NSA, for example, has the world’s most advanced and wide-ranging cyber and signals intelligence operation. If it has gathered evidence of Kremlin links to the Skripal hit, it would have shared that information with GCHQ in very short order.
Second, the means and motive both overwhelmingly point to the Kremlin.
As I noted the day following the attack, the early evidence of a nerve agent being employed and the proximity of Skripal’s residence to a Secret Intelligence Service training facility were all hints at Russian malevolence.
But while this form of attack takes a lot of planning, competency and access to very rare equipment (nerve agent plus delivery system), the most damning evidence against Russia is the particular nerve agent strand that was employed. It was a Russian calling card; Putin knows that because only Britain and a few of its allies hold samples of the particular agent, international experts won’t easily be able to corroborate the British findings. But the Russians also know that the British know that it was them. It’s thus a very Putin-style way of saying, “LOL.”
Similarly, the assassins will almost certainly turn out to be cutouts without obvious, direct links to the Russian intelligence services. And they will have been acting under Putin’s orders.
Ultimately, however, Britain is now convinced of Russian responsibility. May’s declaration that Russian government responsibility is “highly likely” is intelligence-formed language and reflects her evidence-based belief that Putin is guilty.
