Who won the last presidential debate?
According to bettors, Hillary Clinton won. Or to be more accurate, Donald Trump lost. Clinton’s odds of winning the election were unchanged. But Trump’s odds decreased by 0.6 percent.
Going into the debate, at 8:59 p.m., Clinton was an 81.6 percent favorite to win the election according to electionbettingodds.com. Donald Trump had a 17.4 percent chance of winning.
When the debate ended, around 10:39 p.m., Clinton remained at 81.6 percent while Trump fell to 16.8 percent.
That’s not a game-changer, but it’s not good news for Trump, who needed the game changed. Gamblers thought he won the second debate, but it failed to significantly improve his poll numbers.
Of course, voters might disagree with bettors. If polls released over the next week show Trump’s numbers improving, bettors will likely move their odds accordingly.
That’s not how it happened with the first presidential debate. Bettors increased Clinton’s odds of winning the election by 5.6 percentage points during the debate. The polls followed accordingly. In two-way polls from the first presidential debate to the vice presidential debate, Clinton increased her average lead by 1.5 percentage points. In four-way polls, her average lead increased by 2.1 percentage points.
Bettors thought Trump narrowly won the second debate, but Clinton has since risen by 1 percentage point in the polls while Trump fell by 1.5 percentage points. Bettors changed their odds accordingly, with Clinton’s odds of winning rising by about 3 percentage points from the end of the second debate until Wednesday night.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
