The 2016 GOP primary has confounded political analysts who have tried to understand why governor after governor has failed to connect with voters and quit the presidential race.
But Texas Sen. Ted Cruz thinks he knows exactly what has happened, and broke down the horse race exclusively for the Washington Examiner‘s Your Choice, Your Voice Teleforum.
Cruz detailed his path to victory and who he expects will be his main opposition.
“Historically in the Republican primary, there have been two major lanes: there’s been a moderate establishment lane and there’s been a conservative lane,” Cruz said. “And in past elections, typically, the moderate lane there is a consensus moderate choice early on and all of the money gets behind that candidate. But on the conservative side, typically there are a whole bunch of us, nobody has any money, and we fight like cats and dogs. And that’s how in primaries in past cycles, the moderate has gone on to win the nomination and then they lose the general election because millions of conservatives stay home and don’t vote.”
“And what I am very, very encouraged by is this year — that whole dynamic has flipped. The moderates, there are four, five, or six candidates fighting in the moderate lane, they have millions of dollars apiece, and I think they’re going to spend that money ripping each other apart. And, at this point, it’s not clear who will win the moderate lane. It does appear Jeb Bush sees Marco Rubio as his greatest threat in the moderate lane. And the two are battling ferociously back-and-forth. But at this point it’s not clear who’s going to win that lane and I do think right now the moderates are behaving like conservatives typically do in prior elections.”
“And then if you look on the conservative side of the ledger, the candidates who have dropped out: Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal. All good men, all strong governors. All were competing primarily in the conservative lane. And I think the consequence of that, particularly when factored with the reality that other good people who are running who were thought to be competing strongly in the conservative lane have just not gotten meaningful traction or support, what we have seen each and every day is more and more conservatives uniting behind our campaign.”
Cruz thinks the race could once again come down to one conservative and one moderate, but this time the outcome will be much different. The 2016 election looks much better for a conservative, Cruz argues.
“If it comes down to one conservative and one moderate, which many analysts are predicting it may well come down to one conservative and one moderate, once we get head-to-head, we win,” he said. “And the reason is simple: In the Republican primary, conservatives outnumber moderates. Historically, they’ve outnumbered moderates two-to-one, now conservatives are outnumbering moderates, three-to-one.”
Ultimately, Cruz thinks he will emerge because he has a proven record of fighting both political parties on the issues about which Republican primary voters care most.
“And the biggest difference between me and the other very, very fine candidates on that debate stage is that I’m the only one that has a proven record of standing up to Washington over and over again,” he said. “Of taking on not just Democrats, but leaders in my own party to fight for conservative principles and the Constitution and that’s why conservatives are uniting behind our campaign. And I’ll say this if that continues to happen, if conservatives continue to unite, we will win.”
Cruz ranks second in the Washington Examiner‘s GOP presidential power rankings, behind only Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
