Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu scored a remarkable win on Monday, when he and his main political opponent, Benny Gantz, agreed to form an emergency coalition government to deal with the coronavirus pandemic.
The deal means that Netanyahu’s leadership of Israel is secured for the next eighteen months. Gantz will then take over. Still, there’s no doubt that this can be considered anything but a huge win for Netanyahu.
First and most obviously, Netanyahu is staying in power. This follows three successive elections over twelve months, the most recent of which was in March, in which neither Netanyahu or Gantz were able to form governing majorities. Gantz had previously insisted that he would never serve alongside a man who has been indicted on multiple corruption counts. Not only has that now changed, but Gantz has accepted he is the junior partner in Netanyahu’s new government.
As an example, while this new government will see Gantz’s Blue and White party control the Judicial ministry, Netanyahu’s Likud Party will have veto power over appointments to a board that supervises the appointment of new judges. That, and Netanyahu’s continued premiership, should protect him from conviction. At least for the next year or so.
Gantz also faces the real prospect that he may never enter power. While the coalition agreement carries a clause preventing Netanyahu from calling snap elections to prevent Gantz’s October 2021 entry as Prime Minister, Netanyahu is an exceptionally shrewd political operator. And come that date, if he senses the polls and the votes are with him, Bibi will be very tempted to move to consolidate continued power.
So where does this leave Gantz?
Well, a fracturing of Gantz’s political alliance and rising support for Likud in the polls meant that the former general had few good choices. But he does now have some significant new opportunities in power. For one, he’ll corral Netanyahu’s policy platform away from his more extreme right-wing Ultra-Orthodox allies. That has long been a priority for the Israeli center, which rightly laments the freeloading arrogance of those parties. While Netanyahu will resist these efforts in order to protect his future electoral viability with new coalitions, Gantz now has access to the centers of power. And, he claims, a veto on all decisions Netanyahu may make.
Where does this leave the U.S.?
In much the same position. Netanyahu and Gantz are both pro-American allies. And the deal assures continued support for President Trump’s January announced peace deal – even if the Palestinians have rejected it outright. Appealing to Gantz’s military background, one first priority for the Trump administration should be to persuade our ally to reduce its technology dealings with China.
But as I say, the top line here is simple. Netanyahu has won a big victory.
