Election 2017: Ralph Northam Victory Heralds a Big Night for Dems

Andrew Egger (8:52) Tonight’s Virginia results come as a huge relief to Democrats, who had grown skittish about the race in recent weeks. Northam had led in the polls all along, but the margin had seemed to shrink in recent weeks after heavy attacks from Gillespie and an ill-advised ad from a Northam-allied group that portrayed Gillespie supporters as a danger to minority children. Compounding their anxiety, Gillespie seriously outperformed expectations in his last statewide bid for office, when he narrowly lost a Senate seat to Mark Warner. This time around, however, the margin of error seems to have fallen the other way: Democrats showed up in droves tonight, and the race was over practically as soon as it began.

Hmmmm … it’s almost like someone predicted Trump might react like this. Oh look, Jonathan V. Last did, just this morning: “[I]f Gillespie loses it will also mean that Trumpism is triumphant in the Republican party. It will be proof that establishment party insiders can’t hope to win and that the future of the GOP is with candidates like Corey Stewart, the mini-Trump who almost shocked Gillespie in the Republican primary.”

David Byler (8:25): Tonight’s results look very good for the Democrats. CNN has already called the New Jersey gubernatorial race for Phil Murphy. And the returns are looking good for Democrats up and down the ballot in Virginia. While AP has now called the Virginia race for Ralph Northam, we don’t know yet what the final margin of victory will be. But if the New York Times’s forecast is right, we may be seeing a significant error in Northam’s favor.

Andrew Egger (8:18): Reporting from the Gillespie party: Round steak is being served by the slab. Meanwhile, a beer runs you $5 at least. As part of the post-mortem, serious questions will have to be asked about this allocation of resources.

Rachael Larimore (8:05): It’s another quick call, this time in New Jersey. This, of course, was expected. New Jersey is a blue state and incumbent Chris Christie is beyond unpopular.

Rachael Larimore (7:50): Looks like a short night in Virginia:

David Byler (7:36): A few minutes ago, Ryan Struyk of CNN noted that with four percent of precincts reporting, Gillespie led Northam by five percentage points. Gillespie supporters shouldn’t get too excited about this. It’s only four percent of precincts. Moreover, Northern Virginia’s votes (one of the most Democratic-leaning parts of the state) won’t come until later in the night.

In other words, even if Gillespie maintains a lead for a solid amount of the night, he’s not guaranteed to win.

David Byler (7:20): If you’re following political Twitter, you’ve probably already seen someone talk about early waves of exit poll results and what they tell us about who is or isn’t going to win. Don’t worry about that. Exit polls are useful—analysts often use them (along with other data sources) to get a sense of how various groups voted and what turnout looked like after the election results are in. But the early data alone isn’t always predictive. For instance, early vote data showed suggested Scott Walker would lose his 2012 recall effort, and he didn’t. In 2004, some used early data to suggest John Kerry would win the presidency. He didn’t either (for more details on exit polls, what else they’re used for, and these examples, see this post by Natalie Jackson). So don’t worry too much about what the early exits say. The actual results are rolling in, and those numbers will give us a helpful window into who is actually going to win.

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The stakes on Election Day 2017 are a little lower than those of a year ago, but there are still important races being contested. THE WEEKLY STANDARD will have live results from the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races courtesy of Decision Desk Headquarters, and analysis from our own staff. Our own David Byler previewed those races:

If New Jersey is close, he writes, it will be a real surprise: