Texas Gov. Rick Perry has not yet committed to a run at the GOP presidential nomination, but his potential candidacy is already shaping the prospects of Republicans in the race as the party prepares for a critical test in Iowa. The three-term Texas governor has been generating fresh buzz about his possible run for the GOP nomination, and has indicated that he will decide whether to run in the next two or three weeks. Meanwhile, the current crop of Republican presidential candidates will be preparing for an Aug. 11 debate in Iowa and the Ames Straw Poll, a major fundraising event that is considered an early test of who will win the state caucuses in February.
For Perry, a post-Straw Poll campaign announcement could drain away momentum from the Republican candidates who finish strong in the Aug. 13 event in Ames, said Doug Gross, former chief of staff to Iowa Gov. Terry Brandstad and chairman of Mitt Romney’s 2008 Iowa campaign.
“[Perry] has the ability to attract from both the Bachmann [supporters] and the Pawlenty [supporters] … and that’s a unique space he fills,” Gross said, referring to the two GOP candidates who are expected to do well in Iowa.
The Ames Straw Poll has traditionally been considered a vital test ahead of the crucial Iowa caucuses.
That’s why Iowans were aggravated when former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the perceived GOP front-runner, announced that he would skip the Iowa caucuses and instead focus on the first two primary states — New Hampshire and South Carolina.
With Romney out of the mix, “there’s a real vacuum in Iowa for someone of [Perry’s] stature, magnitude and fundraising capability,” said Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak.
The latest polls show roughly 10 to 20 percent of Iowa voters are undecided, and “[Perry’s] background and his issue profile fit perfectly with the Iowa primary electorate,” Mackowiak said. “He will be the exciting candidate, the new candidate, the candidate to bring together the Tea Party and evangelicals.”
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann has been dominating that constituency in Iowa polls, and she has spent weeks building a strong fundraising network in the state where she spent her childhood.
But Bachmann lacks executive governing experience, which could be Perry’s ticket to a top slot in Iowa, said Brian Dumas, an Iowa operative who worked for Republicans Lamar Alexander and Tommy Thompson.
“With the background [Perry] has, I think he can walk into Iowa late and people will take a serious look at him because I think people are still [undecided],” Dumas said.
He said Perry has “plenty of time” to announce his candidacy, and could even afford to wait even until Labor Day.
“From Labor Day to when the caucuses are going to be held is an eternity,” he said. “There’s plenty of time for him to put together a campaign and do well in Iowa.”
