Republicans are making a serious play for two West Cost Senate seats this year: the race in Washington–where Dino Rossi is challenging Senator Patty Murray–is close, as is the race in California, where Carly Fiorina is challenging Senator Barbara Boxer. But what about Oregon? Unlike its neighbors to the north and south with toss-up Senate races, the state is in nearly everyone’s “likely Democratic” column. Democratic senator Ron Wyden holds a 16-point lead over Republican challenger Jim Huffman, a law professor at Lewis & Clark law school, in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. “I literally don’t know a soul who thinks Wyden is in trouble or will even have a close race,” says Larry Sabato of UVA’s Center for Politics.
But Wyden’s large lead is somewhat befuddling–and perhaps misleading–considering the fact that Oregon is less Democratic than Washington or California. In fact, Oregon closely mirrors the voting pattern of Wisconsin–where Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold is tanking–in recent presidential elections. Though Oregon voted for Obama over McCain 57% to 40% in 2008, John Kerry narrowly carried the state 51% to 47% in 2004, the same year Wyden won reelection with 63% of the vote and Oregonians voted 57% to 43% in favor of a ban on gay marriage. In 2010, Republicans have a real shot at winning the governorship in Oregon, with GOP candidate Chris Dudley, a former basketball star, one point ahead of Democrat John Kitzhaber, the state’s former governor.
