Polls conducted before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary indicated that Republicans were more fired up than Democrats to vote this year. Looks like they’ve followed through—so far, at least.
It was the Democrats who benefitted from a wide “enthusiasm gap” over the GOP in the 2008 election cycle, with their voters turning out in droves to help propel Barack Obama to the presidency. But Republicans are seeing the historic surge this time around, with a record number of caucus goers in Iowa and a level of voter participation in New Hampshire that nearly matched the booming Democratic turnout there in ’08.
GOP voting in the caucuses increased 57 percent from its level eight years ago, which is the last time both parties had a competitive primary. The 186,932 Iowa voters set a party record by more than 65,000. Additionally, the number of Republican votes in New Hampshire this year jumped 18 percent from its 2008 level.
Compare that with the Democratic results in those two states, where Republicans turned out more voters. It was a stretch for the party to match the nearly 240,000 caucus goers there in ’08. The total declined enough, however—29 percent—to finish behind the GOP in overall voters. Additionally, Democratic turnout in New Hampshire fell 13 percent.
Some of the explanations for these changes are obvious: Democrats don’t have Barack Obama to support, after all, and Republicans are motivated to make sure that Hillary Clinton doesn’t continue his legacy. But political experts say more is at play. The GOP primary has been a media sensation, for example, and election season began with tight contests on both sides.
“In general voter turnout is amplified when a race has a lot of attention, appears close, and voters have the impression that their voice may be heard in a tight race,” George Mason University Professor Jennifer Victor tells THE WEEKLY STANDARD. “Plus, if voters expect turnout to be high, it increases turnout—like a bandwagon effect.”
There are also more granular details. Robert Guttman, the director of George Mason’s Center on Politics & Foreign Relations, highlights Ted Cruz’s ability to turn out first-time caucus goers and the lack of enthusiasm surrounding Clinton as major drivers in the first two primary states.
But what about the major factors moving forward? Part of it comes down that most Trumpian of notions: The candidates’ ability to convince voters that they’re winners.
“Turnout for the GOP will increase if people feel they are going to the polls to vote for a candidate who will win, or if they feel part of some type of movement,” Guttman tells THE WEEKLY STANDARD. He says Donald Trump seems to have activated this type of support, as has Cruz, who “is tapping into the strong belief system of conservative voters who feel he is the one to turn Washington around and are motivated to go out and vote.”
It’s a different story on the Democratic side. There’s enthusiasm for arena rocker Bernie Sanders—his New Hampshire supporters “were very motivated to go to the polls even though they knew he was going to win,” Guttman says—but a lack of it for Hillary Clinton.
“No candidate wins who fails to energize the crowd.”
