Why GOP wanted primary in Nevada

When legislation to shift Nevada’s caucuses to a standard primary election died in Carson City last week, so did a major element of the Republican Party’s strategy to turn the Silver State red in 2016.

For top GOP officials in Nevada and Washington, junking the caucus in favor of a primary was about growing the party and registering voters in preparation to compete with presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in the general election. Caucuses are smaller turnout affairs dominated by conservative activists, and many Republicans were confident that holding a higher-turnout primary inclusive of the rank-and-file would have helped the GOP presidential nominee win Nevada for the first time since 2004.

“Primaries allow the party to get more people involved in the process and gather more data — which is crucial,” Sean Spicer, communications director for the Republican National Committee, told the Washington Examiner on Tuesday.

The Republicans swept to victory in Nevada in the 2014 midterm elections, led by Gov. Brian Sandoval’s re-election, winning control of the state legislature and all statewide constitutional offices, not to mention a Democratic-held seat in the U.S. House. But Democrats still hold a significant registration edge in the state — 489,000 to 425,000 among active voters. The strong organized labor presence, a significant Hispanic voting bloc, helped President Obama win the state twice.

Republican strategists wanted to maximize Nevada’s position as the fourth state to vote in the primary to grow the party’s voter rolls and allow them to amass data to further fine tune their digital analytics and voter turnout program.

Under their plan, a primary would have encouraged the party’s deep field of contenders to compete for delegates to the GOP nominating convention in Cleveland. Their involvement, in turn, would have excited voters and motivated them to stay involved in the process all the way through November of 2016. With the caucus, party insiders are convinced that some of the major candidates will take a pass on Nevada, although none have said so publicly.

In the words of one Nevada GOP operative, a caucus “elevates” some candidates and “eliminates” others. Who fits into which category depends on whom you talk to.

If candidates with committed grassroots followings benefit most, then Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, or possibly retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson could hold the advantage. Paul’s campaign clearly believes the caucus positions the Kentuckian to win Nevada, even though it was the establishment Mitt Romney who won the caucuses in 2012, while Paul’s father, Ron Paul, finished third.

“Nevada stays a caucus!” John Yob, Paul’s political director, posted on Twitter on Monday night. “NV will be an important state spring boarding into Super Tuesday. #standwithrand”

Yob’s tweet was reported by Jonathan Martin of the New York Times.

Sources familiar with the legislative process in Carson City, the Nevada state capital, said the frontrunners in GOP field — former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin — had been pushing for passage of the legislation to switch from a caucus to a primary. The bill has the support of Sandoval and GOP legislative leaders, but stalled in committee in the Nevada Assembly after supporters assumed passage was fait accompli.

Rubio disputed suggestions that he would de-emphasize Nevada in the wake of this development, with spokesman Alex Conant saying: “We will strongly compete in every contest, including the Nevada caucuses.” The Bush and Walker teams declined to comment. But at least in regard to Bush, one Nevada operative noted that the governor’s top consultant in the state, Ryan Erwin, is an experienced caucus strategist.

The primary would have no doubt helped Bush, given his expected large advantage in resources over the other Republicans in the race. But his supporters claim that it is “silly” to dismiss his prospects out of hand.

“The question isn’t whether this hurts Jeb — there is no honest way to quantify whether it does or does not — the question is whether he has the qualities and commitment to compete in the small ball it takes to win in a western state caucus,” the Nevada operative said.

Disclosure: The author’s wife works as an adviser to Scott Walker.

Related Content