After China supplanted Japan in 2011 as the world’s second-largest economy, some China scholars, as well as pundits and economists, began forecasting when it would supplant the United States as the largest. Extrapolating China’s remarkable 9-10 percent average annual growth in the prior three decades, these forecasters placed the GDP crossover in 2020. When China experienced a slowdown to 7-8 percent growth in 2012-2014, the crossover was deferred to 2024-2025.
Current and impending conditions in both economies suggest the recent estimates are likely premature as well, and by a substantial margin. Growth in China may decrease appreciably in the coming decades, while U.S. growth may increase at least slightly. A better forecast is that crossover between the two GDPs is unlikely to occur during the lifetimes of most readers of this article.
