Russia has clandestinely moved fighter planes into a desert airstrip in central Libya to reinforce its private contractor Wagner Group, entering a new phase in its support for Libyan strongman Gen. Khalifa Haftar, U.S. Africa Command told the Washington Examiner Tuesday.
“At least 14 advanced Russian aircraft, a mix of MiG-29 fighters and Su-24s, is definitely of concern,” U.S. Air Force Col. Chris Karns told the Washington Examiner Tuesday by telephone from AFRICOM headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany. “It’s suspected that Wagner mercenaries will operate the aircraft.”
Karns would not speculate as to whether the Russian military’s support to Wagner is in preparation for another attempt to take the Libyan capital and topple the U.S.-supported Government of National Accord, but AFRICOM Commander Gen. Stephen Townsend said in a statement that offensive tools are being assembled.
“Russia is clearly trying to tip the scales in its favor in Libya,” Townsend said in an AFRICOM press release Tuesday. “The world heard Mr. Haftar declare he was about to unleash a new air campaign. That will be Russian mercenary pilots flying Russian-supplied aircraft to bomb Libyans.”
The private Russian military contractor Wagner Group has been involved in Libya for at least two years, Africa Command told the Washington Examiner, and the paramilitary group is used to conceal Russia’s hand in the strategically important country on the Mediterranean basin and NATO’s southern flank.
“Now, it seems like it’s more than influence. They want a presence there, and that could be disturbing,” retired Col. Chris Wyatt, director of African Studies for the U.S. Army War College, told the Washington Examiner.
“In Libya, with these recent developments, we have to start to question whether, in fact, Russia’s view is to back Haftar’s forces so they overthrow the national government,” he added. “That would give them tremendous influence in a newly controlled Libya by Haftar’s forces.”
Asked how Moscow can still maintain plausible deniability about its role in Libya with the fourth-generation jets, Wyatt said Russia probably didn’t expect the American intelligence to be declassified Tuesday.
“Moscow was probably a bit surprised to find the U.S. government releasing aerial imagery photographs of their aircraft on the ground. They probably didn’t anticipate that,” he added.
Columbia University Wagner expert Dr. Kimberly Marten told the Washington Examiner Tuesday that there have been reports that Haftar was angry over the failure of a late 2019 Tripoli offensive, blaming Wagner’s use of low-cost mercenaries and refusing to pay Wagner a $1.5 million tab.
In recent days, the Wagner forces were withdrawn from the Tripoli area to the al Jufra Airfield and were not fired on by Turkish-supported government forces, said Marten. The arrival of the Russian jets indicates that despite internal squabbling, the Russian state does not want Haftar to lose ground.
“If this is happening, this is a brand-new use of Wagner, and we will see Wagner morphing again,” said Marten. “Wagner has been ground forces, people who are advanced intelligence forces who are doing very skilled work, but we have not seen, to my knowledge, Wagner used as pilots.”
Russia continues to deny its presence in Libya, but AFRICOM believes that Moscow is clearly angling for the future.
“When you look at how Russia is acting, they are very much prioritizing Libya,” said Karns. “The interference by countries such as Russia is not helping to bring about security and stability, and consequently, it makes it more susceptible as a location for terrorists, terrorist recruiting.”
AFRICOM Navy Lt. Christina Gibson told the Washington Examiner Tuesday that the Russian military aircraft are likely to provide close air support and offensive fires for the Wagner Group in support of the Libyan National Army.
“Russia has demonstrated it is willing to violate the sovereignty of other nations; it appears willing to do the same in Africa,” she said, noting that Russia has a presence in at least 16 African countries.
Wyatt added, however, that Russia’s interest in Libya goes beyond its sub-Saharan economic interests as the continent’s top arms dealer.
“Moscow and the other backers of Haftar were probably frustrated that they never took Tripoli,” he said. “Clearly, these 14 high-performance aircraft are not something that belong to a private military corporation. This is a government deployment.”
Karns said Russia’s interest in Libya is multifaceted, from exploiting oil reserves to projecting power across the Mediterranean and Red seas — all while promoting conflict.
“They’re looking to harvest the benefits of the instability in Libya,” he said, noting how interference has led to additional casualties and human suffering. “The world should definitely pay attention to it. It is something that is definitely a concern, and it has certainly gotten our attention.”
