On the surface, President Barack Obama’s repeated declarations of health care reform victory seem like crushing defeats for advocates of limited government. Obamacare reached 6 million, then 7 million, and now 8 million signups, and the President is celebrating these numbers as vindication of his signature law and of his administration. But before the President and his allies proclaim “mission accomplished,” they should take heed of the standards by which the American people will ultimately judge Obamacare – the same standards the administration set for itself.
The primary goal of the President’s $2 trillion health care law — that took over one-sixth of the economy — was to insure the uninsured. By every reasonable assessment, it has failed to do so. The vast majority of enrollees were not people who were previously uninsured. Research from the RAND Corporation estimates that of the 7.1 million enrollees on March 31, only about 858,000 people who were previously uninsured have completed enrollment and paid a premium signifying they are covered. While enrollment has reached 8 million, the exact number of previously uninsured people enrolled in Obamacare remains unquantifiable.
Furthermore, it is important to note that “8 million” merely represents people who have gotten as far as putting a plan in their “online shopping cart.” It says nothing about whether they have actually paid a premium – which determines whether they are actually covered. After months of being unable to answer questions about enrollment numbers and breakdowns, the administration was miraculously able to tell the precise moment at which Obamacare hit 7 million – but still will not say exactly how many have paid a premium. Whether that is because the data is unavailable or unfavorable remains up for discussion, but either way leaves questions unanswered.
Ultimately, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that in 2023, there will still be 30 million people uninsured in the United States. In other words, even when measured by the administration’s own key metric, Obamacare has been – and will continue to be – a colossal failure.
Even if 8 million people did enroll in Obamacare, it would be dubious to claim victory given the wave policy cancellations that preceded it. As the President’s health care law rolled out, some six million people around the country received notices that the health plan they liked was to be cancelled. Those cancellations confirmed that the claim made by the President and several members of his party that if people liked their plan, they could keep it, was a lie. Indeed, it was Politifact’s “Lie of the Year.” When viewed against this backdrop, the White House’s touchdown dances seem far less justified.
Given that some 6 million people had their policies cancelled, and the White House goal was a net gain of 7 million newly insured Americans, roughly thirteen million previously uninsured people would have to complete enrollment and pay a premium to achieve the milestone.
Needless to say, people who enrolled in Obamacare because the plan they liked was cancelled by Obamacare cannot reasonably be pointed to as success stories. And “adult children” who are newly covered under their parent’s plan or able-bodied adults now covered under Medicaid expansion are more a symbol of America’s rapidly expanding dependency state than a measure of success for the President’s health care law.
Many of the President’s own allies remain unwilling to embrace Obamacare. If Obamacare were truly the rousing success he claimed it is, then Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and vulnerable Senate Democrats up for re-election would be by Obama’s side basking in its glory. But Sebelius has unceremoniously stepped down from HHS, and vulnerable Democrats remain afraid to associate themselves with the President and his health care law, because the fact of the matter remains – people don’t like Obamacare.
Obama and his allies can repeat the “it’s working” talking points all they want, but a simple look at facts and broken promises reveals that Obamacare is not working.
