House Keepers

At the moment, Republicans seem to have banished the word “impeachment” from their vocabulary. But buzz about impeachment is growing among Democrats and their fevered left-wing base.

The Los Angeles Times, which is passionately anti-Trump, broached the subject in an editorial over the weekend, saying “impeachment must be seriously considered.” The Guardian’s Richard Wolffe wrote that ex-FBI director James Comey’s appearance before the Senate Intelligence Committee last week “was effectively the first hearing into what will surely become the impeachment of Donald J. Trump.”

With Democrats in charge of the House, it won’t matter if Trump hasn’t committed a high crime or misdemeanor—that is, the constitutional basis for impeachment. Democrats could vote to impeach Trump on any ground they might come up with.

But it would be a political gamble. When Republicans impeached Bill Clinton, they were punished by voters in the 1998 midterms and House Speaker Newt Gingrich was pressured into resigning. It turned out Clinton was more popular than they were.

So would Democratic leaders in the House move to impeach Trump? I suspect they would. They might not have a choice. The base and the army of militant liberal groups are fervent in their hatred of Trump. They want him out. And top Democrats are fearful of bucking the base. They tend to be followers, not leaders.

The threat of impeachment puts an extra burden on Republicans. They’re very good at protecting incumbents. But if the effort to drive Trump out of office continues well into next year—with the mainstream media still fully engaged—Republicans would be hard-pressed to keep Democrats from capturing the House.

For now, the best course for Republicans now is to enact their agenda of tax reform, a new health care system, and regulatory relief. And do it before the end of this year. If they succeed, economic growth may have picked up speed by election day in November 2018. In politics, success heals many wounds.

That would surely improve Trump’s prospects for escaping impeachment. On his own, Trump could stop causing trouble for himself by avoiding ill-advised tweets, stupid statements, and engaging in useless fights. He has shown self-discipline at times, but it hasn’t become a habit.

Impeachment isn’t the last word. It would take a two-thirds vote in the Senate to convict Trump and end his presidency. Fewer than half of the senators voted to convict Clinton and he finished his second term.

Impeachment, a Senate trial, conviction—we may never get to any of that. Politics flips overnight these days. Before Comey’s testimony, Democrats were focused on collusion between Trump and Russian in the 2016 presidential election as the basis for impeachment. Afterward, they switched to obstruction of justice. Based on what we know now, neither offer a strong case for impeachment.

If nothing further incriminates Trump, the fierce opposition to his presidency may wane in the 17 months before the midterm. But if Democrats do capture the House in 2018, the impeachment issue could rise again. Having the votes could spur them on.

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Speaking of Republicans, a new Quinnipiac poll found voters opposed to their replacement for Obamacare by almost 4-1. There’s a reason for this: Republicans have failed to defend, must less promote, their plan, while Democrats have attacked it mercilessly and often falsely. They’ve won the argument by default.

This is a new chapter in the ineptitude of Republicans on health care. They’re great at selling tax cuts. They’ve gotten much better in putting conservatives on the Supreme Court. They’re winning the fight to slash regulations. But on health care, the clumsiness continues.

Worst of all, they’ve let Democrats and the press get away with claiming the GOP plan would “eliminate” health insurance for 23 million people. The number comes from the Congressional Budget Office’s analysis of their plan.

Most of the supposed losers, according to CBO’s estimate, would decline to buy insurance because they wouldn’t be required to do so. Obamacare’s gun would no longer be aimed at their heads. Their decision would be voluntary. This shouldn’t be hard to explain.

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In Patrick Buchanan’s new book, Nixon’s White House Years: The Battles That Made and Broke a President and Divided America Forever, he writes about a phone call from Nixon after a press conference. Nixon praised Buchanan for predicting the questions asked by reporters.